I'm worried that a catastrophe....: Musk on why he is shifting focus away from Mars

Elon Musk, the billionaire driving humanity's multi-planetary dreams, has abruptly pivoted priorities: Mars takes a backseat to the Moon.

Musk says the path to making humanity a multi-planetary species may now begin much closer to home, on the Moon as per plans laid out by Nasa, which had always wanted to return to Moon first and use it as a launchpad to head to Mars.

For years, Musk has been closely associated with the idea of colonising Mars. However, the technical and timing challenges of reaching the Red Planet remain significant.

WHY DOES ELON MUSK WANT A MOON CITY BEFORE MARS COLONY?

In an X post, Musk voiced fears of catastrophe wiping out Earth resupply lines, dooming a fledgling Mars colony.

"The priority shift is because I’m worried that a natural or manmade catastrophe will stop the resupply ships coming from Earth, causing the colony to die out," he warned.

Self-sufficiency is key, Musk argued. A "Moon city" could become self-growing in under 10 years, leveraging frequent Earth-Moon trips.

Mars, however, faces a gruelling 26-month synodic cycle, Earth-Mars alignment for launches, stretching viability to 20+ years. "That is what matters most," he declared, tying it to the "prime directive" of preserving consciousness long-term, with AI as a bonus.

The announcement ripples through SpaceX's roadmap. Musk highlighted Starship's upgrades, like in-space propellant transfer, enabling massive lunar cargo drops.

"Once there, it will be possible to establish a permanent presence for scientific and manufacturing pursuits," he posted. Lunar factories could mine resources to build satellites, flinging them deeper into space via electromagnetic mass drivers.

WHAT IS ELON MUSK'S ENDGAME?

The payoff? Aiming for the Kardashev scale, measuring civilisations' energy mastery, Musk envisions 500 to 1,000 terawatts per year of AI satellites in deep space.

These orbital behemoths would harness a "non-trivial percentage" of the Sun's power, supercharging computation and humanity's cosmic reach.

This Moon-first stance marks a tactical retreat from Musk's Mars obsession, voiced since SpaceX's 2002 founding. Past plans eyed a 1 million-person Mars city by 2050, but harsh realities such as radiation, dust storms, thin atmosphere, loom large.

The Moon, just 384,000 km away versus Mars's 225 million km average, offers quicker testing grounds for life support, habitats, and industry.

Critics question the feasibility. Lunar nights last 14 Earth days, challenging solar power, and regolith is abrasive. Yet, NASA's Artemis program aligns, planning sustained lunar presence by 2028. SpaceX's Starship, key to both, eyes uncrewed Moon landings soon.

Musk's calculus reflects escalating Earth risks: climate chaos, geopolitical tensions, AI upheavals. "Ensuring the long-term survival of consciousness" echoes his doomsday prepping, from Neuralink to xAI.

Space enthusiasts debate: Does this delay Mars, or bootstrap it? Either way, Musk's Moon bet accelerates off-world bootstrapping, blending survival pragmatism with audacious tech.