Cuba after Venezuela? Will US blockade topple Havana's 67-year Communist rule

Cuba is teetering on the brink of a full-blown financial and humanitarian crisis. Food shortages are mounting. There's severe electricity rationing. Hours-long blackouts have disrupted the daily lives in the Communist-ruled island nation of 11 million. Oil and food supplies can't reach the Communist country due to an American blockade. This is the toughest test for the Communist regime that Fidel Castro brought to power in 1959. Amid the American blockade, Cuba's Deputy Prime Minister Oscar Perez-Oliva Fraga insisted that the nation would "overcome" and not "collapse", even as supplies dwindled dangerously low.

This dire situation did not emerge overnight. It follows the US's military capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro on January 3. The regime in Venezuela had been severing the oil lifeline that Cuba depended on to keep its economy running. Determined to make America great again, the Americas, especially Cuba, are on Trump's radar.

Through the US's intense pressure and sweeping sanctions, combined with the loss of Venezuelan oil supplies, Havana's economy has visibly been squeezed to the edge. Cuba on Monday warned airlines that it was suspending jet fuel supplies for a month, reported news agency AFP.

Together, these factors have pushed Cuba's 67-year-old Communist regime into its most precarious moment since the 1959 revolution that brought Castro to power. This blockade may be the reason the regime, which has long been a recipient of American ire, now faces a genuine threat of collapse, feel many.

The United Nations said on Wednesday that the humanitarian situation in Cuba is "extremely concerning". The situation could worsen, or even collapse, if oil needs aren't met, it said.

BLACKOUT IN CUBA, RATIONING STARTS, MEXICO SENDS IN FOOD

Cuba's economy is reeling under a tightening energy squeeze that has strained everyday lives on the island. British newspaper, The Financial Times, on January 29 reported that oil stocks in Cuba were then estimated to last as little as 15 to 20 days. In the capital Havana, blackouts have recently skyrocketed to 12 hours or 15 hours a day, reported the US-based Quantum Commodity Intelligence, a portal on world trade. This has disrupted the functioning of hospitals, transit, water systems and food refrigeration.

The government has imposed rationing and emergency measures to preserve essential services. Healthcare, food production and critical infrastructure are prioritised for the scarce fuel that remains. Other non-essential things like culture, education and other sectors have been scaled back.

The UN last week warned that Cuba's humanitarian situation could worsen, and even collapse, if oil needs are unmet.

Amid the mounting pressure, Mexico sent two ships carrying 814 tonnes of humanitarian aid to Cuba. Mexico is also weighing how to continue supplying oil to Havana without triggering tariff retaliation threatened by Donald Trump, reported news agency AFP.

Residents of Havana are speaking of long lines for basic goods and transport, and the constant uncertainty of not knowing whether there will be power or fuel tomorrow. Some have begun to rely on wood and coal for cooking, a signal of how deep the energy crisis has become, reported Australian broadcaster ABC News.

WHY CUBA'S COMMUNIST REGIME IS UNDER ITS SEVEREST STRAIN?

Much of Communist Cuba's chronic economic struggle stems from long-standing capitalist US sanctions that date back to the embargo first imposed in the 1960s. But recent developments have accelerated the crisis. For decades, Venezuela supplied most of Cuba's imported oil under favourable terms. That flow has now effectively stopped after the US captured Maduro in January. The regime in Caracas fell and Maduro's deputy is now working with the Trump administration. This has left Havana without its largest economic patron.

Mexico had stepped in as a key supplier, but even that flow has faltered. Under pressure from the US, Mexico's state energy company has scaled back planned shipments, and recent deliveries have been minimal. Cuba, which relies on at least around 1,00,000 barrels a day to keep the lights on and its economy functioning, now receives only a fraction of what it needs, according to the Americas Society/Council of the Americas, a forum for dialogue on Latin American politics, economics, and culture.

These conditions have exacerbated long-running structural problems in Cuba's economy. It was already facing a contracting GDP, rising real living costs, and an ongoing exodus of citizens seeking better opportunities abroad. The loss of reliable energy supplies has compounded these pressures in ways that experts feel could prove fatal for the island's Communist/socialist model.

WHAT DOES TRUMP-LED US WANT FROM CUBA?

The Trump administration has escalated pressure on Havana dramatically. In late January 2026, President Donald Trump declared a national emergency over Cuba and signed an executive order authorising tariffs on any country that provides oil to the island. The move was aimed at cutting off all external fuel supplies unless Cuba "aligns sufficiently with the United States" on key policy objectives.

Trump also publicly declared that "no more Venezuelan oil or money" would go to Cuba and urged the Cuban government to make a deal with Washington "before it is too late".

While the US rhetoric frames its measures as part of a long-held goal to end Cuba's Communist rule, critics accuse Washington of weaponising energy and food scarcity to engineer regime change from the outside. Cuba's allies like Mexico have warned that tariffs on their oil exports could spark a humanitarian crisis on the island.

"Trump calls Cuba a threat while tightening the blockade and trying to cut off its oil supply. But no oil means no electricity, no functioning hospitals, no food reaching markets, no dignity for ordinary people. Are we really ready to starve an entire nation? Can you imagine telling a child that the pain in their stomach, the empty plate in front of them, the days without enough food are simply the price of US foreign policy? This is economic warfare, and it has to stop," American political activist Medea Benjamin posted on X.

HOW IS THE MOOD IN CUBA OVER US BLOCKADE? DO CUBANS WANT REGIME CHANGE?

For many ordinary Cubans, the crisis is felt in everyday hardship. Rolling blackouts, empty buses, scarce fuel and rising prices have made daily life a struggle. Some see the strain as proof that the communist model is failing, blaming inefficiencies and rigid controls that have persisted for decades, according to a ground report by ABC News.

Others resent the US pressure, which many view as punitive and indiscriminate. Cuban officials have called US tactics "unjustified" and insist that Cuba's sovereignty and socialist system are non-negotiable, reported news agency Associated Press.

Some Cubans are also living under the shadow of fear of a possible US attack, while being optimistic about the Communist regime's fall. Rachel, a 21-year-old civil servant, told German broadcaster Deutsche Welle (DW), "Sometimes I think that [Trump] will attack us next, and sometimes I think he won't let us drown, so he can make himself look like the good guy."

"We can only wait and see what happens next," another Cuban, Aleida, told DW.

There is also a broad and growing migration trend. Millions of Cubans have left the country in recent years, seeking better opportunities abroad. This diaspora includes skilled workers, students and families who say they no longer believe the island nation's future lies in its current political system, reported British newspaper, The Guardian.

Yet many remain fearful of chaos and change. The collapse of Communist systems could lead to disorder, shortages of food and medicine, and a security vacuum that might harm ordinary people most of all.

COULD THIS BE THE MOMENT THAT ENDS THE COMMUNIST REGIME OF CUBA?

For decades, analysts have predicted the fall of Cuba's communist government at various important junctures, especially after the collapse of the Soviet Union or market reforms in China and Vietnam. But the regime in Havana endured each time. But the current combination of tightened sanctions, energy deprivation and diminishing external support presents a unique test.

Some US policymakers believe this pressure could finally create conditions like economic desperation and social unrest that might trigger a change in Cuba's political order. Embedded in Trump's strategy is the expectation that depriving Cuba of fuel and hard currency will force political shifts from within.

Yet others caution that a regime so deeply entrenched, with control over the military, security apparatus and state institutions, is unlikely to collapse simply because of external pressure. Cuba's leaders have signalled willingness to engage in dialogue with the US, without preconditions, even as they rejected interference in internal affairs.

The Communist regime of Cuba insists on these conditions even as it keeps cracking down on dissidents in Cuba.

"Most Cubans, inside and outside, want change... But you cannot lead opposition inside Cuba because the regime jails any potential organiser immediately," one of Cuba's most prominent political prisoners, Jose Daniel Ferrer Garca, the founder of the opposition group Patriotic Union of Cuba (UNPACU), told The Guardian.

Ultimately, whether this moment marks the beginning of the end for Cuba's 67-year-old Communist regime is far from certain. The energy crisis might hasten a socio-economic breakdown. The US pressure could also intensify. Will the US go in like it did in Caracas to abduct Maduro? One is never sure with Trump.

But most agree that a lasting political shift in Cuba will require more than scarcity and sanctions. It will demand internal reforms, sustained public pressure and credible alternatives that can grow and challenge the status quo.