How late snowfall in India raises alarm over future water crisis for billions

Himalayan peaks that should have been buried under several feet of snow for months are finally seeing a late-season surge of white.

After a bone-dry start to the year, the region witnessed its first intense pulse of moisture between January 22 and January 24, which brought the season's first significant snowfall to Kashmir, Manali, and Shimla.

This was followed by a more powerful Western Disturbance that intensified on January 26, Republic Day, and peaked through January 28. While these spells have ended the immediate dry spell in major tourist hubs, the winter of 2026 remains defined by a critical "snow drought."

A snow drought is a period of abnormally low snow for the time of year, caused either by a lack of winter precipitation or by warm temperatures that cause moisture to fall as rain instead of snow.

High-altitude regions like Tungnath, the Lahaul Valley, and the inner reaches of the Garhwal Himalayas are still grappling with a massive seasonal precipitation deficit. This is not just a cosmetic change; it is a ticking water bomb for the plains.

WHY SNOWFALL IS IMPORTANT FOR INDIA?

Glaciers like the Gangotri and Chorabari are the bank accounts of India’s water security. Normally, winter snowfall acts as a deposit, replenishing the ice lost during the summer.

However, data from the Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology reveals that despite the recent flurries, states like Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh faced a staggering 80 to 100 per cent precipitation deficit for the majority of the season.

At places like Tungnath, which sits at 12,000 feet, the usual heavy snow was replaced by mere frost until the very late arrival of moisture in the fourth week of January.

Interestingly, while the Western and Central Himalayas struggled, parts of the Eastern Himalayas, including North Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh, have maintained more stable precipitation levels.

However, for the rest of the range, the lack of early season "fresh gold" is a disaster. Late snow is "wet snow", it melts quickly and does not compact into the dense, blue ice needed to sustain glaciers.

This means the mountains are still in a negative mass balance, spending more ice than they earn.

WHY IS IT SNOWING SO LATE IN INDIA?

The primary driver of this crisis is the changing nature of Western Disturbances, the Mediterranean-born storm systems that bring winter rain and snow to India.

In January 2026, the first intense system did not arrive until January 22, followed by the Republic Day disturbance that peaked on January 27 and January 28.

Historically, these systems would arrive as early as November or December, building deep snowpacks that could survive the summer heat.

Nasa and India Meteorological Department (IMD) data suggest that rising global temperatures and a shifting subtropical westerly jet stream are pushing these storms further north or making them moisture-deficient.

Instead of consistent, light-to-moderate snowfall throughout the winter, we are seeing long dry spells followed by sudden, intense bursts.

These extreme events provide a white cover for photographs but fail to replenish the deep-seated glacial reserves necessary for the subcontinent's long-term water needs.

HOW WILL LATE SNOW AFFECT INDIAN RIVERS?

The impact will soon hit home in the Indo-Gangetic plains. Himalayan snowmelt contributes about 25 per cent of the total flow of the Ganga, Indus, and Yamuna basins.

As the snowpack thins or arrives too late in the season to become permanent ice, the steady spring melt becomes erratic.

Initial surges from rapidly melting "wet snow" could trigger flash floods, followed by a devastating dry spell when water is needed most for the rabi harvest.

Water demand is set to skyrocket as groundwater levels fail to recharge without the slow, seeping melt of mountain snow.

For the 2 billion people relying on these rivers, the vanishing white peaks are a stark warning. This year’s drought signifies a fundamental shift in our climate cycle, moving towards a state of permanent cryospheric stress.

A FUTURE WITHOUT FROST

The socio-economic fallout is immense. Hydropower plants, providing a significant portion of northern India’s electricity, depend on consistent river flows.

Furthermore, the apple orchards of Harshil and Kashmir require a specific "chilling period". While the snow between January 22 and January 28 provides temporary relief, the long dry spell that preceded these dates has already disrupted the biological clock of these crops, threatening yields.

Tourism, the backbone of the Himalayan economy, has already taken a hit.

Empty ski slopes in Gulmarg and Auli earlier this month were not just a disappointment for travellers but a disaster for locals.

We are witnessing the slow-motion collapse of a natural system that has sustained Indian civilisation for millennia. As the reliable snow disappears, India must prepare for a future where every drop counts.