Jana Nayagan delay: Tamil Nadu theatres face Rs 100 crore loss, survival crisis

Thalapathy Vijay's Jana Nayagan, which was scheduled for a grand release on January 9, was meant to be the actor's farewell film before he transitions to full-time politics. For theatre owners, Jana Nayagan's release was looked upon as a jackpot. After a dry November and December 2025, theatre owners, exhibitors and distributors were eagerly looking forward to the film's release on January 9.

However, Jana Nayagan suffered, and is still suffering, a delay due to a legal dispute with the Central Board of Film Certification (CBFC) over the non-issuance of a censor certificate. The Vijay-starrer could have helped theatres breathe a sigh of relief. The situation now looks grim for Tamil Nadu theatres and the box office.

How has Jana Nayagan's delay impacted the Tamil Nadu box office? A trade analyst and a single-screen theatre owner spoke exclusively to India Today Digital to weigh in on the pressures that the industry is facing.

A Rs 100 crore loss for Tamil cinema this Pongal?

Trade analyst Ramesh Bala exclusively told IndiaToday.in that the Tamil Nadu box office must have suffered nearly a Rs 100 crore loss due to Jana Nayagan's delay. He explained how this legal standoff had affected the industry: "Pongal was supposed to witness the clash of Vijay's Jana Nayagan and Sivakarthikeyan's Parasakthi. However, the film's release was stalled. Vijay's film could easily have made Rs 150-200 crore in Tamil Nadu alone. Parasakthi made Rs 55 crore in Tamil Nadu."

He further said, "Karthi's Vaa Vaathiyaar, which was released for Pongal, was a complete washout, while Jiiva's Thalaivar Thambi Thalaimayil (TTT) made around Rs 30 crore in Tamil Nadu. In total, the Tamil Nadu box office saw nearly Rs 85 crore in January after Parasakthi and TTT released. Without Jana Nayagan, it's a huge loss. Since there is no projected revenue, the Tamil Nadu box office could have lost almost Rs 100 crore because of Jana Nayagan's delay."

A grim situation for Tamil cinema

A Chennai theatre owner highlighted an alarming situation across Tamil Nadu theatres. Due to Jana Nayagan's delay and the uncertainty surrounding the film's release, the release schedule for the next few months has been messed up.

Ruban Mathivanan, owner of GK Cinemas in Chennai, pinpointed that this could lead to a Bollywood-like situation in Kollywood, where single-screen theatres have been shutting down, leaving the market dominated by multiplex chains.

His X post on January 30 read, "Alarming situation across all theatres in TN. We need to have a proper release schedule and makers should stick to it, hopefully Industry comes together and sort the pressing issues to avoid #Bollywood like situation in #Kollywood."

Elaborating on the situation, Ruban said, "The first quarter of 2026 screams crisis. As theatre owners, we had high hopes for Jana Nayagan. After Bison and Dude in October, there has been a vacuum for big-budget entertainers. Though Aan Paavam Pollathadhu and Sirai performed well, Jana Nayagan could have revived our business. We could have sustained 2–3 months with that. Pongal 2026 had a 10-day-long week, so it was a perfect time for Jana Nayagan."

Highlighting the situation, he said, "Since November 2025, there has been a dry phase in Tamil cinema. Usually, there will be phases on and off, but this time, it is prolonged by 4–5 months. Now, it has come to the question of survival."

If the trend continues, Kollywood is likely to face the same situation Bollywood did. "This way, single-screen theatres across Tamil Nadu are likely to shut down. Like Bollywood, PVR and Inox will dominate and then producers would have no qualms but to agree to their terms and conditions," he said.

Kollywood in crisis

After Jana Nayagan got delayed, rumours are doing the rounds that it could release in February if (a big if) the legal disputes are solved. Ramesh Bala said, "There are no potential films in February and March. Only small-budget films, which could rake in Rs 15 crore, are scheduled for the next few months. If Jana Nayagan releases, it will attract family crowds and theatres could earn money through tickets and F&B sales. However, with the current legal situation, it is unclear as to when Vijay's film will release. Even if it releases in mid-February or later, it may not have a long run if the Election Commission of India announces the Tamil Nadu Assembly Election schedule."

If the election model code of conduct (MCC) comes into force, then the ECI has the authority to stop screenings of films with political themes that could influence voters. "That way, Jana Nayagan could face a limited run. So, there's a lot of uncertainty. Hence, those films (Love Insurance Kompany, Karuppu), which were supposed to release in February and March are waiting to see when Jana Nayagan would release, so they could schedule theirs accordingly."

Ruban explained that the February and March slate looks bleak. "Usually, these two months will see fewer footfalls due to IPL and exam season. However, it has been the case since November 2025. If this continues, then it will lead to a corporate takeover. The only way forward is for producers and exhibitors to sit together to sort out the release calendar, hold negotiations with OTT players and rectify the mess," he said.

The way forward

The Jana Nayagan delay has exposed the fragility of Tamil cinema's theatrical ecosystem. What was supposed to be a celebratory farewell for one of Tamil cinema's biggest stars has instead become a cautionary tale about the industry's structural vulnerabilities.

With single-screen theatres on the brink of closure, the dominance of multiplex chains looming, and OTT platforms further compressing theatrical windows, the industry faces multiple crises simultaneously. The lack of a robust release calendar, combined with the unpredictability of legal and political hurdles, has left theatre owners, distributors, and producers in a state of limbo.

As Ruban Mathivanan emphasised, the solution requires collective action – producers and exhibitors must collaborate to create a sustainable release calendar, negotiate better terms with streaming platforms, and ensure that films reach theatres in a timely manner. Without such intervention, Tamil cinema risks following Bollywood's path, where corporate consolidation has fundamentally altered the theatrical landscape.

The question now isn't just when Jana Nayagan will release, but whether the industry can use this crisis as a wake-up call to restructure itself before it's too late. For now, Tamil Nadu's theatres continue to wait – hoping that the lights will stay on long enough to see Vijay's final bow on the big screen.