Seven seats the Congress eyes to corner Pinarayi Vijayan in Kerala polls
Political observers say the Congress faces a tough contest in these constituencies as the LDF has retained them by fielding veterans from home turfs
Buoyed by its performance in the civic polls, the Congress is in an upbeat mood ahead of the Kerala assembly election. There is not only anti-incumbency to bank on but also perceived inertia among a section of the hardcore CPI(M) cadre.
The CPI(M)-led ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) has 95 MLAs, including Independents, in the 140-member legislative assembly. The United Democratic Front (UDF), led by the Congress, has 42 legislators.
“Kerala, in 2021, witnessed an unusual political order that opted for a second consecutive term for the LDF. The Opposition Congress is hoping to strike its best in the upcoming polls. But it will need some extra political muscle to wrest power,” P.K Surendran, veteran political analyst, told INDIA TODAY.
According to Surendran’s forecast, the Opposition can at best win 62 seats, of which four may go to the BJP. If true, that could translate into a simple majority victory for the ruling alliance.
For the Congress, a lot rests on seven assembly seats it has never won—Kannur, which minister Ramachandran Kadannappalli holds; Thiruvambadi, which Communist Marxist Party (CMP) leader C.P. John is expected to contest from as a UDF candidate; Beypore, where Trinamool Congress leader P.V. Anvar will take on tourism minister and chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan’s son-in-law Mohammed Riyas; Elathur, which minister A.K. Saseendran of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) won for a third term in 2021; Guruvayur, which the LDF has been winning since 2011; Kollam, which the LDF has held since 2006; and Kuttanad, which the UDF has been losing since 1980.
“Victories for the Congress in these seven constituencies could tilt the poll outcome. Yet, this would be far from easy as the LDF has retained the constituencies by fielding veterans on their home turfs,” observed media commentator K.V. Sudhakaran.
Election strategist Sunil Kanugolu’s optimism of a rising Congress aside, the party in Kerala has major worries in the form of the spectre of a vote drain in central Kerala and a Catholic vote shift to the BJP. If the 18 per cent Christian vote-bank largely deserts the Congress, the CPI(M) and Vijayan could well be a step closer to a hat-trick victory in Kerala.
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