An iffy peace deal

After negotiations spanning over a year, the Americans have signed a peace agreement with the very force they had militarily dislodged from power in Afghanistan in 2001, describing it, with recourse to some linguistic gymnastics, as the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, which is not recognised by the United States and is known as the Taliban. President Donald Trump intends to personally meet the Taliban leaders.The agreement provides for withdrawal of all foreign forces from Afghanistan within 14 months, subject to the Taliban acting on its commitment to not allow the use of Afghan soil to threaten the US and its allies; intra-Afghan negotiations scheduled to start March 10 between the Taliban and Afghan sides (a vague expression necessitated by the Taliban reluctance to talk to the Afghan government) to finalise a permanent ceasefire and the future political roadmap of Afghanistan; the release of all prisoners by both sides; and the lifting of US and UN sanctions against the Taliban. Secretary of state Mike Pompeo has spoken of two secret implementing elements for protection of US soldiers.The way forward is highly uncertain. For starters, President Ashraf Ghani is reluctant to release Taliban prisoners, which the Taliban insist on before they participate in the intra-Afghan dialogue. They have ordered resumption of operations against the Afghan forces. Abdullah Abdullah, the runner-up in the presidential election, has challenged the election of Ghani, threatening to constitute a parallel government. The Americans may knock their heads together, as in 2014, but complete unity may elude those facing the Taliban. Further, going by their record, the Taliban are likely to push for complete dominance, thereby unleashing a fresh power struggle. Because of their family and ideological ties with Al Qaeda, doubts remain over their ability to sever links with it. Their assurance to not allow use of Afghan soil against the US and its allies does not cover their sanctuaries in Pakistan. Their commitment to constitutional governance, and the rights and liberties Afghans have come to enjoy under it, is also highly suspect. Above all, should the Taliban fail to keep their side of the bargain, will President Trump, facing re-election, be willing to halt withdrawal of troops, presented as fulfilment of his election promise? Significantly, the withdrawal is not linked to successful conclusion of intra-Afghan negotiations.Pakistan, which has been publicly credited by the Americans with helping during the negotiations, will hope for an improved security situation on its western border following the Taliban gaining control in Afghanistan. Moreover, with the Americans needing Pakistan’s help during the implementation phase, we should expect the current bonhomie between the two sides to continue..preferred-source-banner{ margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom:10px;}India has reacted cautiously to the agreement, noting that the entire political spectrum in Afghanistan has welcomed the hope for peace and stability it has generated (apparent reason for deputing an Indian representative to attend the signing ceremony in Doha) and calling for a lasting political settlement through an Afghan-led, Afghan-owned and Afghan-controlled process.With a deep and abiding interest in Afghanistan, India has reason to be concerned about further turmoil there. Our development assistance has earned us considerable goodwill. However, putting boots on the ground has not been an option, as it would bring us in conflict with Pakistan and its proxies, with the logistical advantage lying with them. There have been suggestions to engage with the Taliban, who, besides having deep ideological affinity with religious extremists in Pakistan, also depend on the Pakistanis for sanctuary and more. Many of them have families and business interests there. This dependence will continue in the event of a renewed power struggle following the American withdrawal. Therefore, while we should be willing to engage with all stakeholders in Afghanistan who are willing to engage with us, their ability to resist the Pakistani influence may remain severely constrained unless the Taliban change radically to live in a genuine power-sharing arrangement. As well-wishers of Afghanistan, we should hope against hope that the agreement leads to peace. However, in the event of a renewed power struggle, we should be nimble-footed in choosing our partners within and outside Afghanistan in the light of the changing equations.Published By: Iram Ara IbrahimPublished On: Mar 6, 2020--- ENDS ---

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An iffy peace deal

President Ashraf Ghani is reluctant to release Taliban prisoners, which the Taliban insist on before they participate in the intra-Afghan dialogue.

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Mood of the Nation Offer: Use promo code MOTN2026 to get ₹500 off on all Print + Digital subscriptions

An iffy peace deal

President Ashraf Ghani is rel­uctant to release Taliban prisoners, which the Taliban insist on before they participate in the intra-Afghan dialogue.

President Ashraf Ghani is reluctant to release Taliban prisoners, which the Taliban insist on before they participate in the intra-Afghan dialogue.