Too close for comfort

The US drone attack at Baghdad airport on January 3, killing Iranian general Qassem Soleimani, has destabilised the region. While recent tit-for-tat events led to the current impasse, the US-Iran animosity has a long history, interspersed with moments of tactical cooperation.In 1985-87, President Ronald Reagan sanctioned the Iran-Contra operation in which Iran compelled its allies in Lebanon to release kidnapped Americans in exchange for arms needed for war with Iraq. Iranian payments funded the CIA's anti-communist operations in Nicaragua. When revealed, it left Reagan exposed to Congressional ire. In 2001, post the 911 terror attacks, as the US prepared to dislodge the Taliban regime in Afghanistan and capture Al Qaeda masterminds, Iran extended full cooperation in making its network with the Northern Alliance available. In fact, Gen. Soleimani shepherded it. But such cosiness fell apart when President George W. Bush dubbed Iran a part of the 'Axis of Evil' in his 2002 State of the Union address. Finally, when ISIS captured large parts of northern Iraq and Syria in 2014, President Barack Obama, unwilling to enter another war, calculated that only Iran could counter ISIS. The 2015 nuclear deal between P-5 plus Germany and Iran opened this gambit. Led by Maj. Gen. Soleimani, Iran created an alliance of Shia militias, with recruits from Afghanistan, Iran or even India, battle-hardened Hezbollah fighters from Lebanon, Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga and Syrian Kurds to eliminate ISIS. The Saudis and Emiratis resented this strategic about-turn by the US.President Donald Trump resurrected the US-UAE-Saudi Arabia axis, abandoned the nuclear deal and imposed sanctions on Iran. The US expected Iran to sue for peace or that economic privations would lead to the overthrow of the regime. Instead, Iran escalated the stand-off by sequestering ships carrying oil and even shooting down a US drone. The US suspects Iran also masterminded the attack on a Saudi oil processing centre that crippled oil exports for weeks. The current escalation began as a cycle of tit-for-tat attacks starting on December 27 when an Iran-trained Iraqi militia, the Kataeb Hezbollah, fired rockets at an Iraqi military camp near Kirkuk. Iran claimed ISIS leaders were being sheltered there. Russia has also accused the US of using ISIS elements in Afghanistan to undercut the Taliban. The US retaliated by killing three dozen Kataeb Hezbollah militia members, who responded by swarming the US embassy in Baghdad. Finally, the US assassinated Soleimani. On Tuesday, Iran followed through on their Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's threat of "direct and proportional" retaliation with ballistic missile strikes on US military bases in Iraq that were perhaps deliberately symbolic rather than lethal. A measured tweet from President Trump was followed by his statement that Iran "appears to be standing down", maintaining an element of ambiguity and dissonance in the war of words.The Trump administration appears to have three core priorities vis- -vis Iran: a more stringent nuclear deal, a cap on missile development and rolling back Iranian influence in the region. The first is perhaps doable, the second doubtful and the third impossible. Iran's assertion of influence in the region has cultural and historical resonance, empowering Shia populations fragmented after the collapse of Ottoman power in the early 20th century..preferred-source-banner{ margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom:10px;} France, the UK and the EU want the nuclear deal to survive. Japan and even China want a peaceful Gulf for assured energy supplies. India has belatedly jumped in with external affairs minister S. Jaishankar speaking to his Iranian counterpart. India has the security of six million citizens working in the Gulf states to consider, as well as the consequences of a disruption of oil and gas supplies and trade.While India's interest in stability in and around the Gulf exceeds even that of China or Japan, its ability to shape events started degrading from 2004, after Atal Bihari Vajpayee's government fell. His successor, Manmohan Singh, wagered tremendous political capital on a nuclear deal with the US. As a price, the US extracted a vote against Iran at the IAEA. The joint secretary dealing with the US then was the current external affairs minister Jaishankar. The Modi government has increased that tilt by wooing not only the US but also rulers of the UAE and Saudi Arabia, who are driving the current confrontation. This hampers India's ability to play honest broker. To hope that the US and its Gulf allies will abandon Pakistan in return is fruitless, particularly as the Afghan endgame approaches. Thus, India needs to work with P-5 and Japan to urge the US to not exacerbate tensions while urging Iran to contain its desire for revenge. n(K.C. SINGH is a former Indian ambassador to Iran and former secretary, Ministry of External Affairs)Published By: Snigdha ChoudhuryPublished On: Jan 10, 2020--- ENDS ---

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Too close for comfort

India has the security of six million citizens in the Gulf to consider, as well as the disruption of oil and gas supplies.

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