BJP to face first electoral test after Vaghela split from party, formed govt in Gujarat

High Aim: Keshubhai Patel is trying to take advantage of the RJP-Congress splitMost people in Gujarat would agree that the elections for 26 Lok Sabha and 182 assembly seats in the state on February 28 is a historic one.For the BJP it is the first electoral test after Shankersinh Vaghela split from the party and formed the government, dealing a blow to the party's image across the country. For Vaghela and his Rashtriya Janata Party (RJP) it is the true assessment of his immense horse-trading skills and his oft-repeated slogan "my high command is the people of Gujarat, not people sitting in Delhi". And for the Congress, which has been ruling the state from the back seat for most of the past seven years, it is the evaluation of whether the party can take advantage of the BJP-RJP rivalry and rule the state on its own.In a state which has witnessed virtual political turmoil in recent months, it isn't surprising that local issues have taken precedence over national issues. True, Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Sonia Gandhi charged up what was otherwise a listless campaign for the national elections, but across the state the key issue being discussed was the RJP's governance - or rather what went on in the name of governance. As the polls neared, it appeared the BJP was all set to turn the tables on the RJP and the Congress. "This is an election that will send a message to the entire country - that money and strong-arm tactics can buy MLAs but not the people," says state BJP leader Keshubhai Patel..preferred-source-banner{ margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom:10px;}Sole Ambition: Congress chief C.D. Patel wants to prove his party can rule aloneThe BJP, split by Vaghela almost two years ago, received a boost when the Congress - which had propped up the minority governments of first Vaghela and later Dilip Parikh - decided to break its alliance with the RJP, thus making the poll a three-cornered contest. The break came after state Congress chief CD.Patel and AICC treasurer Ahmed Patel apprised the high command about the need to face the polls alone since party workers opposed the alliance. Besides, Vaghela made unrealistic demands on seat-sharing. Says C.D. Patel: "The breaking up of the alliance has not only saved us from annihilation but has instilled confidence at the grassroots level. Sonia Gandhi's tour of the state in the final round will make all the difference."Given the ground realities, Patel is not wide off the mark. The collapse of the alliance has sent a wave of jubilation through the Congress rank and file and the party's headquarters in Ahmedabad is again humming with activity. It has also left the RJP in disarray: Vaghela, who once boasted that his party could field candidates in all the seats on its own, was able to find only 174 assembly and 23 Lok Sabha candidates - most of them lightweights.As in the rest of the country, Sonia continues to be the biggest draw for the Congress. For the assembly elections, the party is harping on the fact that the BJP has been unable to provide a stable government in the state so far.However, the Congress suffered a severe setback when its candidate Nanji Vekaria withdrew from the contest at Visavadar leaving the field clear for Keshubhai Patel. To make matters worse, the Congress' Kurji Bhesania, who lost to Keshubhai Patel in the last elections, joined the BJP. Poll PlanksBJP: Corruption and misrule of the RJP Government; the failure of the Congress to form a government in the past seven years; its drive against the mafia during its six-month rule in 1995.Congress: "Non-governance" of the RJP Government; Sonia's popularity among Muslims; the BJP's inability to provide a stable government.RJP: A party not controlled by leaders in Delhi; a government which worked for the welfare of the poor, the backward classes and the minorities.But it is in the RJP that the lack of cohesiveness is more pronounced. More than half a dozen incumbent ministers are not even contesting, presumably fearing a rout. Deputy Tourism Minister Bachubhai Sondarva backed out from Keshod in Saurashtra giving a rather specious reason: "I want a break from politics." Minister for Ports Umesh Rajyaguru has done the same in Rajkot. Most damaging for the party, Vaghela opted not to contest either for the Lok Sabha or the assembly poll, saying he did not want to be pinned down to campaigning in one constituency. As state BJP General Secretary Kaushik Patel puts it, "The fact that he has run away from the battlefield itself is an admission of defeat." Vaghela, however, carries on undeterred, touring the state in his Asmita (pride) Rath in a style that is reminiscent of his parent party, the BJP. In Parikh's constituency, he says, "All politicians are thieves. What ultimately matters is the result." Vaghela then reels out a list of populist measures that the ruling party took, such as 30 per cent reservation for women in government jobs, "which no government had dared to do in the past".When it comes to money, Vaghela has no peers. For weeks, the RJP has regularly been taking out four-page supplements in local dailies while over four dozen video vans criss-cross the state carrying the message of his party's "achievements". "We are set to get between 98 and 106 assembly seats," says Vaghela. "The measures we took for the poor and backward sections and the minorities have made a deep impact." Obviously, the RJP chief is depending on the backward classes and the minorities whom he has been wooing after splitting from the BJP. But by forcing the assembly polls along with the Lok Sabha polls - the RJP Government sought the dissolution of the Assembly against the wishes of both the Congress and the BJP - he seems to have taken on more than he bargained for as his party candidates for the Lok Sabha and the assembly polls in most cases belong to different communities. His minority card too is threatening to fall apart as Muslims seem to have found a saviour in the Congress' new face, Sonia. The Congress' main plank is the misrule of both the RJP and the BJP governments. However, its campaign does not seem to have made much of an impact as the Congress and the RJP are seen as two sides of the same coin.Tough Task: The RJP's Parikh and Vaghela are on their own this timeIn 1996, when Vaghela formed the government, the Congress supported it. And later, when the state Congress unit wanted to withdraw support, Congress President Sitaram Kesri opposed it. As a senior Congress leader says: "Had we played the role of an aggressive opposition we would have been in command today."The BJP'S six-month rule in 1995 under Keshubhai Patel seems to have done the party a good turn. It is still remembered for the unprecedented clean-up drive that it launched against the mafia in various fields. The party is also pepped up with the return of strategist Narendra Modi who had been sidelined in the BJP's factional war.But even as the main rivals gear up for the final round, the spectre of violence looms large over the state. At least half a dozen clashes have already taken place between the BJP and the RJP and even between the RJP and the Congress. On the day L.K. Advani filed his nomination papers in Gandhinagar, a major clash was averted between BJP and RJP workers. The Election Commission has listed as many as 20 per cent of the total polling booths in the state as sensitive. The elections in Gujarat then will be as much a challenge for the Election Commission as for the BJP, RJP and the Congress.Published By: AtMigration Published On: Mar 2, 1998--- ENDS ---

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BJP to face first electoral test after Vaghela split from party, formed govt in Gujarat

The stage is set for a three-cornered fight for power and prestige in the backdrop of possible violence.

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