Gujarat polls: Vaghela's calculations backfire as Congress parts ways with RJP

Risky moves: Governor Krishna Pal Singh (centre) was on Dilip Parikh's side and didn't give the BJP, supported by RJP rebel Atmaram Patel (below far right), a chance to form the governmentFor the ministers taking a short break from work after a meeting of the Cabinet at the Narmada dam site in Gujarat, Christmas was not going to be merry or peaceful.But on December 24, there was little to suggest that they would suddenly be flung into the hurly-burly of election-time politicking when Chief Minister Dilip Parikh along with mentor Shankersinh Vaghela got into a helicopter and flew back to Gandhinagar, 240 km away.In the state capital, Parikh and Vaghela went about their business swiftly. Keeping not only the ministers but also the ruling Rashtriya Janata Party's (RJP) ally Congress in the dark, the chief minister met Governor Krishna Pal Singh and submitted a letter seeking dissolution of the state Assembly. In less than 24 hours, the demand was conceded. Rejecting the BJP's claim to form a government with the help of 17 rebel RJP MLAs - who had left the party to form a separate group led by senior minister Atmaram Patel - Singh dissolved the House and reduced Parikh to a caretaker chief minister.With that one stroke, the state's political scenario altered. Allies in the RJP and the Congress became sworn enemies overnight. For the BJP, it was an unexpected windfall on the eve of mid-term polls to the Lok Sabha. Threatened as it was by the allies' move to tie up for the state's 26 Lok Sabha seats, the party was elated and even forgot that it had been denied the chance to form a government in the state. As state Congress chief C.D. Patel vehemently accused Vaghela of political betrayal and swore that his party would have nothing to do with the RJP again, the possibility of triangular contests in the Lok Sabha elections has sent spirits soaring in the BJP camp.Undoubtedly, it was at Vaghela's instance that a reluctant Parikh took the extreme step. Vaghela's primary aim: to see that the assembly polls were held along with or before the Lok Sabha elections, but not after..preferred-source-banner{ margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom:10px;}This is because the former chief minister, angling for 30 to 40 seats in the assembly polls - enough to deny a majority to the BJP which needs 92 seats to form the government in the 182-member House - is not so sure of his prospects should the BJP come to power at the Centre.And though the Congress had rejected the idea of holding assembly polls earlier, Vaghela was confident that the party would stand by him. Relying on his direct-dialling links with Congress President Sitaram Kesri and senior leader Pranab Mukherjee, he believed that the party would have no option but to support him in view of the Lok Sabha elections. In addition, he thought he could encash on some of his moves - such as the creation of 48 new talukas in the state - only if the assembly polls were held at the earliest.However, his calculations appear to have gone haywire as the state Congress, disregarding Kesri's advice to keep the alliance intact, took a tough stand. Said Patel, after withdrawing support to the RJP Government and petitioning the governor against dissolution of the Assembly: "They didn't even have the courtesy to inform us of their decision in advance. They have lost our faith." Vaghela's defence is that he had no choice. "The BJP had come very close to wooing our MLAs and forming the government. I had to pre-empt it," he says.Vaghela had also not foreseen the chain of political events that would be triggered in other quarters. To begin with, 17 MLAs, led by Atmaram Patel, broke away from the RJP under the banner of the RJP(A). Requesting the governor not to dissolve the House, they claimed that they had been taken for a ride and that Parikh had forced them to agree to the Cabinet decision delegating authority on the issue of dissolution to himself. The chief minister, they said, had argued that he needed such authority to strike a bargain with the Congress on the distribution of seats. But clearly, they knew that Parikh was only the front man. "Vaghela is a synonym for cheating," says Atmaram. And as if the split was not bad enough, the rebels, including eight ministers, informed the governor that they would support the BJP if it formed the government. In their petitions to Singh, the RJP(A) and the BJP said that the advice on dissolution was unconstitutional as it didn't have the concurrence of the supporting party, the Congress. But Singh, reported to be close to Vaghela, rejected their pleas. Acting under Article 174 (2) (B) of the Constitution, he dissolved the House and allowed Parikh to continue.However, it is also not jubilation all the way for the BJP, from which Vaghela had split to form the RJP last year. Though elated that the situation led to the Congress parting ways with the ruling party, the BJP is not keen on early assembly polls. BJP's fears and RJP's miscalculations apart, the Congress has also been affected. As a political observer put it: "The BJP has a lot to account for. Despite winning a two-thirds majority in the last elections, it could not provide a stable government." The party plans to challenge the governor's decision in court and senior party leader Atal Bihari Vajpayee has said he would even appeal to President K.R. Narayanan against the dissolution.The BJP's fears and the RJP's miscalculations apart, it would seem that the situation has taken its toll on the beleaguered Congress as well. The state unit of the party is facing the possibility of a double split, one led by a section of the late Chimanbhai Patel's Janata Dal-G (JD-G)faction and another led by Pravinsinh Jadeja, who has with him 25 former Congress MLAs and scores of second-rung party workers. Both the factions hold Kesri and Mukherjee responsible for the party's condition in the state. The communication gap is apparent. Even as Patel officially announced in Ahmedabad that the Congress had broken its alliance with the RJP, Mukherjee claimed in Delhi that the proposal for Lok Sabha seat sharing between the two parties was still alive. Says Jadeja: "Kesri's overall conduct has hurt the self-respect of even the junior-most party worker. We have no option but to break away from the Congress." The JD-G faction, led by former minister Dalsukh Godhani and Narhari Amin, has been considering a split from the Congress with 18 MLAs. Both the groups are thinking of joining hands with the BJP.Never one to give up, Vaghela has reportedly begun parleys with leaders of the United Front (UF) to explore the possibility of joining it. Sources in the party say he has been in touch with UF leaders Mulayam Singh Yadav and Ram Vilas Paswan, besides A.B. Bardhan of the CPI. Vaghela, however, has maintained a studied silence on his course of action, choosing to comment only on the Congress: "We are still willing for an alliance with the Congress for the Lok Sabha polls. But we do have the capacity to go it alone."If Vaghela's move leads to a triangular contest, then his gamble is likely to fail as the BJP will then clearly have the winning edge. For now that is. There's no telling what can happen in these times of political backstabbing and unforeseen alliances; the Congress and the RJP could well be in each other's arms once again.Published By: AtMigration Published On: Jan 12, 1998--- ENDS ---

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Gujarat polls: Vaghela's calculations backfire as Congress parts ways with RJP

Vaghela's calculations backfire as the Congress parts ways with the RJP and the BJP looks forward to three-way contests in the assembly and Lok Sabha polls.

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