Click here to EnlargeThe outcome of the twelfth Lok Sabha election reveals the changing nature of Indian politics. The enthusiasm with which the people have embraced the democratic process, with a rise in turnout for the first time in a mid-term poll, shows that politics is no longer a middle-class game. A hung Parliament for the fourth successive election confirmed that we have long passed the age of national verdicts. The national picture is just a sum total of state-level verdicts.The spectacular rise of the BJP combine marks the '90s out to be a decade of political realignment. It also brings home the truth that the path to power in this society lies in the creation of political, regional and social alliances.BJP: Alliances Pay DividendsThe BJP with its allies has emerged as the largest vote-getter in the country, the first time any party or combine has overtaken the Congress in this respect. Although in 1996, it managed to squeeze a few more votes which made it the largest party in terms of seats, it appeared stuck at around 20 per cent of the vote share, and even with allies could not reach the 25 per cent mark. In 1998, BJP's success is much more apparent. It has broken the 25 per cent barrier in its own right, and the allies add a crucial 6 per cent to the total.Click here to EnlargeThe major change in the fortunes of the BJP stems from the alliances that have helped it break out of its central Indian heartland and into the south and east where previously it struggled to make an impact.In an area stretching from the southern states of Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu up the eastern coastal belt through Andhra Pradesh and Orissa to West Bengal, strategic alliances have seen the party make major gains both in terms of votes and seats.In 1996, the BJP secured merely 9 per cent votes in this region, and a meagre seven seats. This election has seen the BJP front emerge as the dominant player, with 31 per cent of the vote and a total of 72 seats: a quarter of the total up for grabs. In these seven states the vote swing to the BJP alliance was 22 per cent, compared to 4 per cent in the rest of the country. .preferred-source-banner{ margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom:10px;}The BJP takes a smaller share of the seats won by the allies in all these states apart from Karnataka, but its gains add up to a substantial total and enhance its credibility as a contender for government. Overall, the swing to the BJP on its own was 5 per cent.The gains in the southern and eastern coastal belt far outweighs the fluctuating fortunes in states which were BJP strongholds. Big anti-incumbency swings in Rajasthan, Haryana and Maharashtra - where in recent elections it has done well - weakened the party.In Uttar Pradesh the BJP gained marginally, helped by the three-way split in the opposition parties. There is also some evidence that the party gained from the attempt to overthrow the Kalyan Singh Government: the first round of voting saw a swing of 1.9 per cent to the BJP in Uttar Pradesh, which increased to 4.4 per cent in the second round.Congress: Clinging on where it can Click here to EnlargeFor a party that brought down the UF government and led the nation to these elections, the Congress has very little to show by way of gains. As of now, it has one seat less than what it had in the last Parliament. Its vote share has once again fallen to a historical low of 25.4 per cent.Optimists in the party can point to the fact that it still gets more votes than any other single party, and that its tally has gone up to 166, if one includes the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). But that's hardly a consolation. The fact is that the BJP contested fewer seats than the Congress and yet managed about the same number of votes. And the RJD is hardly an ally the Congress can bank on.The 1998 election results show that it is not just the influence of dramatic political events that can swing the result over the multiple stages of the election, but a more gradual change in the national mood. In the beginning of February the Sonia wave was at its apex, but each successive round of the election saw people less likely to vote for Congress and the swing to the BJP getting larger.Of course, it is impossible to quantify the exact number of votes that the frantic campaign by Sonia added to the Congress total, but looking at the most obvious measure - the change in votes in the 141 constituencies where she campaigned compared to the rest of the country - shows that the Sonia factor did play a part in boosting Congress' prospects. Where Sonia appeared there was 3 per cent swing to Congress, while in the constituencies she bypassed the swing went 3 per cent against the party.Click here to EnlargeIn Uttar Pradesh the decline of the Congress party is such that it could not even hold on to Amethi, the Nehru-Gandhi bastion in the state. Like other parties, Congress suffered in states where it was in power, losing in Himachal Pradesh, Orissa, Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat.Supporters of Sharad Pawar will point to the gains made in Maharashtra, where a strategic alliance with the Republican Party of India and the Samajwadi Party effectively beat the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance at its own game. In Kerala the long standing partnership of the UDF gives Congress a stable base from which to fight in the state. Perhaps there lies a lesson for the Congress.United Front: Divided Fortunes The Left Front comes out of the election as the largest block in the UF, winning a total of 48 seats. In West Bengal the party saw a 3 per cent fall in its share of votes. But this was not reflected in the number of seats won, with the Front holding on to 48 seats. The defection of Mamata Banerjee meant that the opposition was divided, and the BJP Trinamool Congress gained mainly at the Congress' expense. In Kerala, a straight two-way fight with the UDF saw a loss to the Left of only one seat.The New Face of Parliament Click here to Enlarge The regional parties had mixed fortunes: humiliation in Tamil Nadu, big losses in Assam and a relatively respectable outcome for the TDP in Andhra Pradesh. In all these states an anti-incumbency movement amongst the electorate can be seen to have led to losses in votes and seats. The Samajwadi Party fought a tough campaign against the BJP in Uttar Pradesh, and modest gains illustrate the solidity of Mulayam Singh Yadav's support.For the Janata Dal, the member of the UF with most seats after 1996 and provider of the last two prime ministers, the result was almost unremitting devastation. Riven by splits and destructive rivalries, the party was almost wiped out in Karnataka, Orissa, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. It is virtually non-existent in most of the states in the north and the west. The party built its success on a solid block of OBC votes, and the loss of this vote base to both the BJP and breakaway parties left the Janata Dal weak and isolated.Published By: AtMigration Published On: Mar 16, 1998--- ENDS ---
