Small change can hit Congress

CONGRESS HAS RECOVERED SLIGHTLY FROM THE DEfeat in the 1996 election following the return of Madhavrao Scindia and Arjun Singh. Yet, it is far from secure. The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is emerging as a serious rival. Irrespective of the swing for either of the two alliances, the BSP may well manage to swing 5 per cent votes. Even a 4 per cent swing against the incumbent Congress could virtually wipe it out. On the other hand, a 4 per cent swing in its favour can enable it to overtake the BJP. In this finely balanced state, shifts in votes will really make a difference.