Congress seats are more vulnerable

ANOTHER STATE THAT WILL WITNESS A CLOSE fight. The return of the Tiwari Congress has improved the baseline position of the Congress. Yet a razor-thin swing of 1 per cent could see a reversal of the position. If the swing touches 5 per cent, it could be an overwhelming victory for the BJP. If the BJP's incumbency goes against it, and it suffers a 3 per cent negative swing, the Congress could gain two seats. The state illustrates the unevenness of the electoral turf. The same amount of swing has different consequences for the two parties.