BJP-Samata needs big swing

BIHAR PRESENTS A NUMBER OF IMPONDERABLES. It is not possible to estimate the swing without an idea of how much of the erstwhile Janata Dal (JD) vote is now with the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). The baseline would also depend on an assessment of the not-so-perfect seat adjustment among the RJD, the Congress and the JMM. At the starting block the combine has an upper hand. It retains the position despite a 2 or even 5 per cent swing. The BJP-Samata alliance would have to affect at least an 8 per cent swing against the RJD to score a decisive victory.