Telangana, anti-incumbency factors may spoil Chandrababu Naidu's plans

Andhra PradeshIN TROUBLE: Naidu is haunted by regionalismThe emergence of a new political entity adds a somewhat baffling dimension to the changing contours of electoral politics.In Andhra Pradesh, the fledgling Telangana Rashtra Samithi is making calculations of political parties and pundits go haywire.It is because the groundswell for a new political formation that throws up a new generation determined to alter the existing political structure gathers critical mass as it nears the polling day.Adding to this is the fact that the three-year-old party is contesting in 42 of the 107 assembly seats in Telangana and six of the 15 Lok Sabha seats in the region in alliance with the Congress, which has also reached an electoral understanding with the CPI and CPI(M) to stall a split of the anti-TDP-BJP vote and make the most of the anti-incumbency sentiment.Clearly, if the alliance works without any hiccups the index of opposition unity will be unusually strong and even more so because the ruling TDP of N. Chandrababu Naidu has been in office for nine-odd years.It can help the Congress-led alliance grab the votes of those vacillating on the polling day not only in Telangana but also in the coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema regions where the TDP is dominant. Such remarkable unity spells trouble for Naidu and the TDP-BJP combine.However, with weighty aspirants denied ticket by various parties, the "rebel" factor is bound to damage the prospects of both the combines.There are rebels, including ex-MLAs denied tickets this time who can influence more than 10,000 votes each in 30 of the 294 assembly constituencies. If "ticket splitting" has its fallout, the TDP-BJP combine will make striking gains in some of these constituencies like it worked to the BJP's advantage in Rajasthan four months ago.Only a wily strategist, who tracks the trends in the constituencies continuously and knows how to make the course corrections in publicity and propaganda machinery, can capitalise on this flux.And this is the strength of Naidu and he will use it effectively, possibly after the first phase of polling on April 20 when Telangana and north coastal districts go to vote in 147 assembly and 21 Lok Sabha constituencies.An equal number of constituencies in coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema go to polls on April 26.On the other hand, the Congress for want of an organisation is banking heavily on anti-incumbency. It is also enlisting Priyanka Vadra to campaign in the coastal districts.In fact, even if there is a swing of just 2 per cent away from the TDP-BJP combine the Congress is certain to score a triumphant win.Published By: AtMigration Published On: Apr 26, 2004--- ENDS ---

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Telangana, anti-incumbency factors may spoil Chandrababu Naidu's plans

The Telangana and anti-incumbency factors may spoil Naidu's plans but the wily strategist can spring some last-moment surprises.

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