Click here to EnlargeThe big question during an otherwise dull election campaign was whether the verdict would end the stalemate in the Lok Sabha. The INDIA TODAY-CSDS survey shows that it may not. The BJP and its allies will remain the largest bloc in the 12th Lok Sabha. A swing of 6 per cent votes in its favour over its 1996 vote share is likely to increase its tally by 27 seats, but it is unlikely to make the kind of gains it was expected to. The Congress, which appeared to be on its death bed, is showing signs of life again, with a 2 per cent swing and a gain of 21 seats over 1996.On the other hand, a swing of 9 per cent against the United Front (UF) may see its strength in the Lok Sabha come down by as many as 53 seats from the 180 seats it won last time.Click here to EnlargeThe survey indicates that the Congress and the UF together will continue to control a majority of seats in the new Lok Sabha, dashing hopes the BJP may have had of forming the government. As in 1996, government formation may again necessitate the tenuous understanding between these two formations.For the first time in the history of electoral politics in independent India, the Congress faces serious competition for the position of the largest party or electoral front in terms of votes. The survey shows that the Congress with 32.2 per cent may just remain ahead of the BJP and its allies with 31.3 per cent, though this difference between the two is smaller than the margin of error. About two-thirds of the BJP's gain in vote share comes from its newly acquired allies. The BJP itself may not register more than a 3 per cent swing in its favour.Click here to EnlargeNormally, a 6 per cent swing should bring in a sizeable number of additional seats but the survey does not predict any such substantial gains. The reason is that the swing in favour of the BJP is not uniformly spread. Thanks to the alliance with the AIADMK, it may get more votes in Tamil Nadu but these may not translate into seats. On the other hand, in states like Maharashtra where a minor swing could have made a huge difference, the party is in fact losing votes. A large proportion of its newly acquired votes are therefore either surplus or wasted. Between the 1991 and 1996 elections, the BJP did not gain votes but improved its tally substantially. This time it may be the other way round.The regional breakdown of results shows the BJP making some gains in the north. In Uttar Pradesh the divided opposition and a positive vote swing could see the party making gains at the expense of the Samajwadi Party. Bansi Lal faces a rough ride in Haryana.In the west, the BJP looks set to concede seats to the Congress. In Maharashtra, the Congress-SP-RPI alliance could cause damage to the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance, which could outweigh gains for the BJP in Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh. It is making progress in the east and this may well translate into seats. Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress has succeeded in undermining the prospects of the Congress. Laloo Yadav's RJD is under pressure from the BJP-Samata alliance, but is not out.For the first time, the BJP and its allies could send a noticeable chunk of the MPs from the south. The BJP is set to gain from its alliance with R.K. Hegde's Lok Shakti, while the Janata Dal (JD) is headed for disaster. Though an anti incumbency factor is evident against the TMC-DMK, it is too insignificant to alter the equation in Tamil Nadu.Published By: AtMigration Published On: Sep 1, 2012--- ENDS ---
