What's behind Trump's change of heart for India?

For months, Donald Trump had India firmly in his crosshairs, calling it a “tariff king,” threatening steep trade penalties, and accusing New Delhi of indirectly fuelling the Russia-Ukraine war through its purchase of Russian oil. Then, abruptly, the rhetoric softened. From public praise for Prime Minister Narendra Modi to talk of a sweeping trade agreement, Trump’s sudden shift in tone has caught diplomatic and trade circles off guard.

On Monday night, Trump announced the year-long due trade deal with India after call with "greatest friend" PM Modi. As part of the deal, Trump agreed to reduce tariffs from 50% to 18%. It wasn't just a simple announcement, it was a post loaded with honey and sugar as Trump said the decision was made "out of friendship and respect," PM Modi.

The reversal has sparked a key question: what changed? Analysts point to a mix of strategic, economic and geopolitical factors: from India’s growing leverage on the global stage to recent high-profile trade moves that may have altered Washington’s calculations. Whether driven by real concessions, competitive pressure, or political expediency, Trump’s change of heart marks a notable moment in the evolving India-US relationship.

WHAT'S BEHIND TRUMP'S CHANGE OF HEART?

Trump sways and swings like few others, making it difficult to pin his shifts to a single cause without doing injustice to his famously unpredictable nature. That said, the mood does appear to have turned in India’s favour, particularly after last month’s much-touted “mother of all trade deals” with the European Union.

If we go by Trump's word, India agreeing to stop buying Russian oil could be the biggest reason.

"It was an Honour to speak with Prime Minister Modi, of India, this morning. He is one of my greatest friends and a powerful and respected leader of his country. We spoke about many things, including trade, and ending the War with Russia and Ukraine. He agreed to stop buying Russian oil, and to buy much more from the United States and, potentially, Venezuela," Trump posted on Truth Social.

Trump went on to write, "This will help end the war in Ukraine, which is taking place right now, with thousands of people dying each and every week! They will likewise move forward to reduce their Tariffs and Non-Tariff Barriers against the United States to zero."

EU TRADE DEAL NUDGED TRUMP?

Not to forget, the big US trade deal announcement comes just days after India and the European Union signed a historic trade deal, termed as mother of all deals. It was not just the deal but the show of strength between PM Modi and the EU leaders which garnered global attention.

Experts and analysts even saw the deal as something Trump, who had been threatening countries across the world with tariffs and sidelining those who don't budge, would not like. The EU not only signed the historic deal, pending for over 18 years, but the timing was coincidentally critical. It had halted the US deal over repeated Greenland takeover remarks at Davos summit just days before the deal with India.

On the day of the deal, Trump aide and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent levelled the same accusation against Europe which it did against India for a long time: of indirectly funding the Russia-Ukraine war through energy trade routed via India.

"We have put 25% tariffs on India for buying Russian oil. Guess what happened last week? The Europeans signed a trade deal with India," Bessent told ABC News in an interview.

Both Prime Minister Narendra Modi and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen appeared to take a subtle swipe at Trump, referring to upheaval in the global order, growing turmoil, and mounting uncertainties, remarks widely interpreted as pointing to Washington’s recent approach.

In the aftermath of the India–EU deal, analysts predicted what Trump’s next move might be, and correctly so, arguing that the agreement would push the United States to pursue a workable trade deal with India.

"The trade deal will be a significant step in bringing America to the negotiating table if India secures a very good deal with the EU," said Raymond Group managing director Gautam Singhania.

MODI WAVE ON GLOBAL STAGE

Trump might be the leader of the world's most powerful country, but PM Modi is in the mood. PM's strategic silence trumps Trump's blabber and gets the work done.

Speaking to India Today, geopolitical expert Ian Bremmer recently said that Trump is unpopular, unlike PM Modi.

"It’s not even Modi, who has now run the country for over 10 years in India and enjoys strong popularity in a democracy. This is Trump, who’s quite unpopular," he had said.

In another interview, Bremmer said that while the United States remains the most powerful country, the same cannot be said for Trump personally, arguing that Chinese President Xi Jinping and PM Modi are in a "better position."

"President Trump is not the most powerful leader. Xi Jinping is. Why is that? Xi Jinping doesn’t have midterm elections. He doesn’t have an independent judiciary. Trump isn’t going to be there in three years. Xi Jinping is, right. And so, while Trump is getting all the headlines and all the media attention, Xi Jinping is actually in a better position as a leader in many ways. Modi is in a better position."

Bremmer said that Prime Minister Modi’s longer tenure allows him to push reforms more aggressively and see through their long-term benefits, unlike Trump or many other European leaders.

While Trump has often slammed India for Russia's oil purchase, he always spoke softly about PM Modi, referring to him as 'great friend".

MOOD IN INDIA'S FAVOUR

It won't be an exaggeration to say that lately the mood has been on India's side with back-to-back deals and global leaders siding by India. The latest one being Canada PM Mark Carney who is planning to visit India after Trump snub. The visit won't be just a regular diplomatic trip but multiple agreements across energy, minerals, nuclear cooperation and emerging technologies are expected.

The visit would mark a significant step in Canada’s efforts to diversify trade and strategic partnerships beyond the United States, its largest trading partner.

India’s High Commissioner to Canada, Dinesh Patnaik, told news agency Reuters that Carney is expected to sign a series of agreements with India covering uranium supply, oil and gas, critical minerals, artificial intelligence and quantum computing, along with education and cultural cooperation. A 10-year uranium supply deal worth about 2.8 billion Canadian dollars is likely to be part of the package.

As allies hedge their bets and rivals recalibrate, India appears to be quietly stacking wins, without tariff threats, public tantrums or megaphone diplomacy. In a world increasingly fatigued by volatility, New Delhi’s steady, deal-first approach may be proving far more persuasive than bluster. And if the recent shifts are any indication, the global mood isn’t just changing, it’s settling, decisively, in India’s favour.