BaisnabnagarтАЩs electoral history is brief but striking. Formed ahead of the 2011 election, it has returned three different parties in its three Assembly polls, a rare feat in Bengal. Uniquely, the party finishing third has gone on to win in the next election each time. CongressтАЩs Ishaque Khan Choudhury took the inaugural 2011 contest, defeating CPI(M)тАЩs Biswanath Ghosh by 5,023 votes. BJPтАЩs Swadhin Kumar Sarkar, coming from a distant third in 2011, captured the seat in 2016 by beating CongressтАЩs Azizul Haque by 4,497 votes. Trinamool Congress, which finished third in 2016, narrowly claimed the seat in 2021 as Chandana Sarkar edged out BJPтАЩs sitting MLA by just 2,471 votes, with Congress relegated to a distant third.
Lok Sabha results reflect a similar seesaw. Congress led in the Baisnabnagar Assembly segment in both 2009 and 2014, by 13,714 votes over CPI(M) in 2009, and by just 535 votes over BJP in 2014. The BJP then established clear leads with 26,329 votes over Trinamool in 2019 and 19,922 votes over Congress in 2024.
Baisnabnagar has seen a remarkable rise in its electoral roll, typical of constituencies near the Bangladesh border. Registered voters rose from 231,102 in 2019 to 246,956 in 2021, and reached 265,756 in 2024, witnessing a surge of more than 34,000 in just five years. As a rural region with limited migration for work, such increases are staggering. The constituency remains dominated by Muslims, who account for 47.80 per cent of voters, while Scheduled Castes are at 29.44 per cent and Scheduled Tribes at 7.05 per cent. 91.67 per cent of voters reside in villages, while only 8.33 per cent are in urban areas. Voter turnout has always been high and steady, with 84.34 per cent in 2011, 86.74 per cent in 2016, 84.70 per cent in 2019, and 84.47 per cent in 2021.┬а
Baisnabnagar, a block-level town, is part of a fertile region with deep historical roots. The area sits amid the ruins of historic Gauda or Gaur, the former capital of the Bengal Sultanate. Between the mid-15th century and the late-16th century, Gauda was one of the worldтАЩs largest cities and a political and cultural hub, known for royal palaces, mosques, and intricate canals. The areaтАЩs proximity to the Ganga and Fulohar rivers endows it with fertile alluvial soil but also exposes it to floods. The economy is based on agriculture, with rice, wheat, jute, sugarcane, and mangoes being the main crops. Basic infrastructure, such as rural roads, electrification, and local markets, is present, while access to banking and healthcare is improving.┬а
Baisnabnagar is about 31 km from Malda Town, the district headquarters. Farakka is 20 km away, Kaliachak is 15 km distant, Sujapur is 14 km away, and the Bihar border is about 40 km to the west by road, with Katihar at 90 km and Purnia about 120 km away. Kolkata, the state capital, is roughly 340 km from Baisnabnagar by road. The Bangladesh border lies only about 10 km to the east, with some stretches of unfenced boundary, leading to regular cross-border movement and law enforcement challenges. The Bangladesh town Chapai Nawabganj lies nearby.┬а
Given this history of shifting political loyalties and razor-thin margins, BaisnabnagarтАЩs electorate keeps every political party on its toes. The BJP notionally enjoys a slight edge after leading in three of the last four major elections here, but its fortunes remain tied to splits in the Muslim vote. The partyтАЩs hopes for 2026 rest on a direct contest between Trinamool Congress and the Congress-Left Front alliance, as both rely heavily on Muslim support, while the BJP depends on a unified turnout among local Hindus, who themselves are divided by caste. Only a convincing narrative and ground-level mobilisation can enable the BJP to reclaim Baisnabnagar from Trinamool in the upcoming Assembly election.
(Ajay Jha)
