What US' billions in cash and weapons to China's rivals means for Indo-Pacific, India
Washington has unveiled multi-billion-dollar arms and aid packages for Taiwan and the Philippines. The deals show America's push to strengthen alliances as tensions flare in the South China Sea. This comes amid a recent flare-up between China and Japan over the Taiwan issue and the US naming India as a strategic partner for the region.
Weeks after the US National Security Strategy document suggested India as a "key strategic partner" in the "Indo-Pacific" to counter China and deepen commercial ties with New Delhi, the Trump administration is now tightening its grip on Beijing's strategic backyard -- the South China Sea region -- by extending arms packages and defence aid to its allies in and around the disputed waters.
On Wednesday, Washington announced an $11.1-billion arms deal for Taiwan, and on Thursday, the US offered a $2.5-billion-worth of defence aid to the Philippines. Taiwan, which China claims as its territory under its One China policy, has for long faced aggression through Beijing's frequent large-scale military drills around the island, mainly to deter any move towards the island's independence.
Meanwhile, the Philippines, which sits on the edge of the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), has been in maritime disputes with China over the South China Sea (SCS), which Manila calls the West Philippine Sea.
The Taiwan deal is the largest-ever arms package for the island, while the aid to Manila comes amid escalating tensions in the SCS. Just last week, the Philippines lodged a protest over "harassment and endangerment" of its fishermen near SCS' Sabina shoal (also called Xianbin Jiao).
China has reacted strongly to both the US' support for Taiwan, and Manila's protest. Beijing called on Washington to "immediately halt" arms sales to Taiwan. The Chinese defence ministry warned that the People's Liberation Army (PLA) would step up drills and would "take forceful measures" to safeguard national sovereignty.
On the issue with the Philippines, China's defence ministry accused Manila of distorting facts about the recent incident involving fishermen. The Chinese ministry said its coastguard's actions were "reasonable, lawful, professional and restrained".
Amid this, there is also a major showdown between Japan and China, over Taiwan -- a low not seen since the Second World War. Relations between Beijing and Tokyo have worsened for more than a month after the newly-elected Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi declared that Tokyo would step in if China launched a military assault on Taiwan.
These developments also come against the backdrop of US tariffs on both China and India. Yet, there is a tilt towards India as the trade between Washington and New Delhi hit a year-on-year high in November since reciprocal tariffs were imposed in August, and a US-India trade deal is seemingly in the offing.
China, meanwhile, is engaged in a tariff and a semiconductors war with the US.
It wouldn't be an exaggeration to call the South China Sea region a geopolitical stew. But what's clear is that under President Donald Trump's second term in the White House, the US, despite pressing allies to spend more on their defence costs and slashing Nato funding, has poured billions into arms and defence aid in the SCS.
But amid the US' tariff tomfoolery, Washington's language towards India has shifted. What was once the "Asia-Pacific" is now the "Indo-Pacific" region, as per its latest National Security Strategy.
AMERICA'S MOVES DIRECTLY DETER CHINA IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA
The move by the US is perhaps the most aggressive in the Indo-Pacific so far.
The massive arsenal package it offered to Taipei includes eight items, like HIMARS rocket systems, howitzers, Javelin anti-tank missiles, Altius loitering munition drones, and parts for other equipment, reported Reuters.
Through this, Washington has raised the stakes for any Chinese adventurism in the South China Sea. American journalist Nick Schifrin said in a show on PBS News, "In Taiwan, the military prepares for war with American artillery designed to sink Chinese invaders. It's the very same weapon the US provided Ukraine to target Russian invaders."
Speaking on the same programme on PBS News, American foreign policy analyst Bonnie Glaser said, "These are weapons that will really prevent the PLA, or maybe even prevent Xi Jinping, from making a decision to send the PLA across the strait, because they will impose a very high cost on an invading PLA."
Glaser, notably, is the Indo-Pacific programme managing director of the German Marshall Fund.
In separate statements, announcing details of the weapons deal, the Pentagon said the arms sales serve the US national, economic and security interests, reported Reuters.
By backing Taiwan's efforts to modernise its armed forces and maintain a "credible defensive capability", the US has escalated the situation, making the already sensitive region even more volatile.
In an interview with CNBC, Matt Gertken, chief geopolitical strategist at BCA Research (Bank Credit Analyst Research), described the US move as Trump's attempt at "restoring some deterrence to Taiwan" amid trade talks with China.
"So he's (Trump) saying to China, we are willing to trade. We are not going to cut off your semiconductors completely, but we are not going to let you attack Taiwan," Gertken told CNBC.
This deterrence, like Glaser suggested, ties down Beijing's military resources closer to home, in a region that has way too many grey zones.
China is clearly furious over it, and it reflects in its unusually blunt response. The Chinese defence ministry said soon after the announcement of the Taiwan deal, "The Chinese People's Liberation Army will continue to strengthen training and combat readiness, take strong measures to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity, and resolutely frustrate attempts at 'Taiwan independence' separatism and external interference."
WHAT US' DEFENCE GRANTS MEAN FOR THE PHILIPPINES?
Since signing the Mutual Defence Treaty in 1951, Manila and Washington have maintained a security alliance that requires both nations to defend each other against external aggression, including in any part of the SCS.
Notably, over the years, there has been plenty of tension between the Philippines and China in the disputed waters. Both the Philippine Coast Guard and the Chinese Navy have accused each other of entering their territorial waters, at times arresting and harassing fishermen, and at other times retrieving rocket debris from test launches.
Amid this, the US' five-year grant for Manila's maritime forces provides a steady stream of defence aid when the Philippines is struggling to fund its military modernisation. The Bongbong Marcos administration had underallocated resources for the Revised Armed Forces of the Philippines Modernisation Programme, leaving gaps that this US support aims to fill, according to Manila-based publication The Philippine Star.
This $2.5-billion aid is crucial as it enables Manila to acquire essential maritime systems like coastal radars, patrol vessels, and air defences, as per the US Naval Institute. These are all important assets for the Philippines' strategic presence and influence in the contested waters in its west.
Hence, Washington's support for Manila is yet another act of deterring Beijing in the SCS region.
INDIA AND ITS ROLE AMID THE US' MUSCLE FLEXING IN THE EASTERN HEMISPHERE
For India, the US' overt support for both Taiwan and the Philippines means its role in the Indo-Pacific region might get recognised more as a key player, as the US intends, in securing one of the world's most important trade routes that pass through the South China Sea.
It must be noted that though the Indian Navy does not practice Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) in the South China Sea as the US does, its ships visit ports in the region for joint practice exercises with navies of countries like the Philippines, Singapore and Vietnam, and join bigger group drills such as in the QUAD.
In August, India and the Philippines staged joint sail and naval exercises in the South China Sea for the first time. Then came the Singapore-hosted multinational Exercise Pacific Reach 2025 or XPR-25 in September. The Indian Navy successfully achieved maiden mating with foreign submarines in the SCS. In October, INS Sahyadri made a port call in Malaysia as part of the operational deployment to the South China Sea and the Indo-Pacific.
Through such participation, India is indirectly committed to the principle of free and open seas.
The Indian Navy is of strategic importance for the US. It is the only one, according to defence experts, that operates between Qatar, the forward headquarters of the US CENTCOM, and the Strait of Malacca, the gateway to the SCS.
Overall, for India, this might be an opportunity to anchor itself firmly as a leader in the Global South.
Today, relations with the US are far from what they used to be, but trade, despite taking a hit, has held up five months after the reciprocal tariffs. Meanwhile, relations with China have shown signs of improvement in recent months.
If India stays off the radar while the US flexes its muscles in the Indo-Pacific by funding Taiwan and the Philippines against a backdrop of Beijing's heightened tensions with Tokyo, it might just be about staying the course for New Delhi.
Weeks after the US National Security Strategy document suggested India as a "key strategic partner" in the "Indo-Pacific" to counter China and deepen commercial ties with New Delhi, the Trump administration is now tightening its grip on Beijing's strategic backyard -- the South China Sea region -- by extending arms packages and defence aid to its allies in and around the disputed waters.
On Wednesday, Washington announced an $11.1-billion arms deal for Taiwan, and on Thursday, the US offered a $2.5-billion-worth of defence aid to the Philippines. Taiwan, which China claims as its territory under its One China policy, has for long faced aggression through Beijing's frequent large-scale military drills around the island, mainly to deter any move towards the island's independence.
Meanwhile, the Philippines, which sits on the edge of the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), has been in maritime disputes with China over the South China Sea (SCS), which Manila calls the West Philippine Sea.
The Taiwan deal is the largest-ever arms package for the island, while the aid to Manila comes amid escalating tensions in the SCS. Just last week, the Philippines lodged a protest over "harassment and endangerment" of its fishermen near SCS' Sabina shoal (also called Xianbin Jiao).
China has reacted strongly to both the US' support for Taiwan, and Manila's protest. Beijing called on Washington to "immediately halt" arms sales to Taiwan. The Chinese defence ministry warned that the People's Liberation Army (PLA) would step up drills and would "take forceful measures" to safeguard national sovereignty.
On the issue with the Philippines, China's defence ministry accused Manila of distorting facts about the recent incident involving fishermen. The Chinese ministry said its coastguard's actions were "reasonable, lawful, professional and restrained".
Amid this, there is also a major showdown between Japan and China, over Taiwan -- a low not seen since the Second World War. Relations between Beijing and Tokyo have worsened for more than a month after the newly-elected Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi declared that Tokyo would step in if China launched a military assault on Taiwan.
These developments also come against the backdrop of US tariffs on both China and India. Yet, there is a tilt towards India as the trade between Washington and New Delhi hit a year-on-year high in November since reciprocal tariffs were imposed in August, and a US-India trade deal is seemingly in the offing.
China, meanwhile, is engaged in a tariff and a semiconductors war with the US.
It wouldn't be an exaggeration to call the South China Sea region a geopolitical stew. But what's clear is that under President Donald Trump's second term in the White House, the US, despite pressing allies to spend more on their defence costs and slashing Nato funding, has poured billions into arms and defence aid in the SCS.
But amid the US' tariff tomfoolery, Washington's language towards India has shifted. What was once the "Asia-Pacific" is now the "Indo-Pacific" region, as per its latest National Security Strategy.
AMERICA'S MOVES DIRECTLY DETER CHINA IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA
The move by the US is perhaps the most aggressive in the Indo-Pacific so far.
The massive arsenal package it offered to Taipei includes eight items, like HIMARS rocket systems, howitzers, Javelin anti-tank missiles, Altius loitering munition drones, and parts for other equipment, reported Reuters.
Through this, Washington has raised the stakes for any Chinese adventurism in the South China Sea. American journalist Nick Schifrin said in a show on PBS News, "In Taiwan, the military prepares for war with American artillery designed to sink Chinese invaders. It's the very same weapon the US provided Ukraine to target Russian invaders."
Speaking on the same programme on PBS News, American foreign policy analyst Bonnie Glaser said, "These are weapons that will really prevent the PLA, or maybe even prevent Xi Jinping, from making a decision to send the PLA across the strait, because they will impose a very high cost on an invading PLA."
Glaser, notably, is the Indo-Pacific programme managing director of the German Marshall Fund.
In separate statements, announcing details of the weapons deal, the Pentagon said the arms sales serve the US national, economic and security interests, reported Reuters.
By backing Taiwan's efforts to modernise its armed forces and maintain a "credible defensive capability", the US has escalated the situation, making the already sensitive region even more volatile.
In an interview with CNBC, Matt Gertken, chief geopolitical strategist at BCA Research (Bank Credit Analyst Research), described the US move as Trump's attempt at "restoring some deterrence to Taiwan" amid trade talks with China.
"So he's (Trump) saying to China, we are willing to trade. We are not going to cut off your semiconductors completely, but we are not going to let you attack Taiwan," Gertken told CNBC.
This deterrence, like Glaser suggested, ties down Beijing's military resources closer to home, in a region that has way too many grey zones.
China is clearly furious over it, and it reflects in its unusually blunt response. The Chinese defence ministry said soon after the announcement of the Taiwan deal, "The Chinese People's Liberation Army will continue to strengthen training and combat readiness, take strong measures to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity, and resolutely frustrate attempts at 'Taiwan independence' separatism and external interference."
WHAT US' DEFENCE GRANTS MEAN FOR THE PHILIPPINES?
Since signing the Mutual Defence Treaty in 1951, Manila and Washington have maintained a security alliance that requires both nations to defend each other against external aggression, including in any part of the SCS.
Notably, over the years, there has been plenty of tension between the Philippines and China in the disputed waters. Both the Philippine Coast Guard and the Chinese Navy have accused each other of entering their territorial waters, at times arresting and harassing fishermen, and at other times retrieving rocket debris from test launches.
Amid this, the US' five-year grant for Manila's maritime forces provides a steady stream of defence aid when the Philippines is struggling to fund its military modernisation. The Bongbong Marcos administration had underallocated resources for the Revised Armed Forces of the Philippines Modernisation Programme, leaving gaps that this US support aims to fill, according to Manila-based publication The Philippine Star.
This $2.5-billion aid is crucial as it enables Manila to acquire essential maritime systems like coastal radars, patrol vessels, and air defences, as per the US Naval Institute. These are all important assets for the Philippines' strategic presence and influence in the contested waters in its west.
Hence, Washington's support for Manila is yet another act of deterring Beijing in the SCS region.
INDIA AND ITS ROLE AMID THE US' MUSCLE FLEXING IN THE EASTERN HEMISPHERE
For India, the US' overt support for both Taiwan and the Philippines means its role in the Indo-Pacific region might get recognised more as a key player, as the US intends, in securing one of the world's most important trade routes that pass through the South China Sea.
It must be noted that though the Indian Navy does not practice Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) in the South China Sea as the US does, its ships visit ports in the region for joint practice exercises with navies of countries like the Philippines, Singapore and Vietnam, and join bigger group drills such as in the QUAD.
In August, India and the Philippines staged joint sail and naval exercises in the South China Sea for the first time. Then came the Singapore-hosted multinational Exercise Pacific Reach 2025 or XPR-25 in September. The Indian Navy successfully achieved maiden mating with foreign submarines in the SCS. In October, INS Sahyadri made a port call in Malaysia as part of the operational deployment to the South China Sea and the Indo-Pacific.
Through such participation, India is indirectly committed to the principle of free and open seas.
The Indian Navy is of strategic importance for the US. It is the only one, according to defence experts, that operates between Qatar, the forward headquarters of the US CENTCOM, and the Strait of Malacca, the gateway to the SCS.
Overall, for India, this might be an opportunity to anchor itself firmly as a leader in the Global South.
Today, relations with the US are far from what they used to be, but trade, despite taking a hit, has held up five months after the reciprocal tariffs. Meanwhile, relations with China have shown signs of improvement in recent months.
If India stays off the radar while the US flexes its muscles in the Indo-Pacific by funding Taiwan and the Philippines against a backdrop of Beijing's heightened tensions with Tokyo, it might just be about staying the course for New Delhi.