Opinion | Why has NDA made political gains despite Indians suffering economic pain?
In India, while most people feel their family's economic condition is strained, a majority still approve of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's performance and say they would likely back the same government again in a national election held today.
India is a land of mysteries. It is also a land of contradictions, some of which even baffle experts. If one dives into the responses to the latest CVoter Mood of the Nation (MoTN) survey for India Today, both qualities are demonstrated.
A common thread of wisdom in democracies across the world is that voter behaviour is very strongly dependent on the economic performance of the government.
If voters feel that inflation is under control, that enough jobs are being created, that there are adequate opportunities for future economic prospects, and that their current economic situation is improving, they tend to vote for the regime in power.
On the other hand, if the opposite holds true, then the regime is usually voted out. That has been the case in most democracies for the last 50 years or so, or perhaps even more than a century.
But in India's case, there’s a stark contradiction: a majority of the respondents seem to be of the opinion that their family’s economic situation is not in very good shape.
And yet, a majority of the same people think that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has done a fairly good job and said they would probably vote for the same regime again if national elections were held today.
PEOPLE UNHAPPY WITH ECONOMY
In response to the MoTN question, who has benefited the most from the economic policies of the National Democratic Alliance, a majority of 53 per cent said that it is big business. Perhaps that could be because of perceptions.
But what is the reality? Here is a laundry list of what the Modi regime has done for the ordinary citizens ever since it came to power:
The Jan Dhan bank scheme, where more than 550 million new bank accounts have been opened with a facility for zero balance.
Provision of electricity connections at no cost to all the households across India, which had been deprived of electricity supply till 2014.
Medical insurance scheme for all people living in poverty, covering about 500 million Indians with insurance of up to Rs 5 lakh. For senior citizens above 70, the scheme is even more generous.
Free LPG connections are given to virtually every household, which means that an overwhelming majority of Indian households now use a relatively clean energy supply.
The construction of more than 130 million toilets across the country has not only provided dignity to women but also led to a reduction in crimes against women in many states.
The Rs 6,000 given to farmers every year. And of course, the Mudra loan scheme, which is exclusively meant for small entrepreneurs.
Data from other sources also makes it abundantly clear that the Modi regime has done more than enough for the poor and ordinary citizens of India.
The poverty ratio in India has actually declined to just about two per cent if you go by global institutions like the World Bank and International Monetary Fund.
And yet, the MoTN survey shows that 53 per cent of Indians think that big business has been the biggest beneficiary of the regime's policies.
Then there is a series of responses to other questions related to the economy.
The first two relate to inflation and unemployment. These two are rated as the biggest failures of the current regime.
Now, unemployment and inflation have been factors across India for more than five decades.
If one is a fan of Bollywood movies, one would recall that even in the early 70s, there were movies made by the late Manoj Kumar, like “Roti, Kapda aur Makaan”, which emphasised both unemployment and high prices.
So to that extent, one can say that singling out the Modi regime for inflation and unemployment would be a tad unfair.
THE CONTRADICTION
But the difference lies in something else, beyond jobs and inflation. More than 31 per cent of the respondents said that the economic situation of their family has actually deteriorated ever since Modi came to power in 2014, while about 35 per cent said it has improved, and about 30-odd per cent said that it has remained the same.
Despite so many welfare schemes and so many economic incentives, why is it that the average voter thinks that there is economic pain?
Then there is another very worrying set of data that has persisted since the times of the Covid-19 pandemic.
More than 60 per cent of the respondents in the MoTN survey said that expenses and family budgets have gotten very, very difficult to manage. That is a very large number.
So, these are some of the concerns that actually confront the ordinary Indian, their economic situations, and those of their families.
And they are not very optimistic about it. Almost a third felt that the situation might worsen in the next three to six months.
And yet, here is the contradiction. When asked about the performance of the prime minister as well as the NDA regime, they are given very, very high marks.
More importantly, when asked about whom they would likely vote for if elections were held today, 47 per cent of the respondents said the NDA. Meanwhile, only 39 per cent said that they would vote for the INDIA bloc.
WHY IS THIS THE CASE?
On the one hand, people are facing economic pain. A reduction in GST rates did not seem to have satisfied them; about half of the respondents said that it did not affect prices that much.
Still, the NDA will get a 47 per cent vote share, and will likely win more than 350 seats if Lok Sabha elections were held today. How does one explain this?
As far as the authors are concerned, perhaps the real reason lies in a proverb called it is better to go with the known devil than an unknown one.
No doubt, voters are unhappy. Perhaps this was one reason why the NDA tally declined in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, and that of the Bharatiya Janata Party fell significantly short of the majority mark of 272.
But despite the economic pain, voters seemed to feel — given the economic and geopolitical situation in India's neighbourhood and in the world — that Narendra Modi was the safest bet.
Is it better to play safe with Modi than try out a new regime? Or is India back to that era when Dr Prannoy Roy coined the term TINA (there is no alternative) for the India Today magazine?
Maybe there is more to the mystery. But for the moment, the reality is that for the NDA, it is political gain despite economic pain.
(Yashwant Deshmukh is the Founder and Editor-in-Chief of C-Voter Research Foundation and Sutanu Guru is Executive Director)
India is a land of mysteries. It is also a land of contradictions, some of which even baffle experts. If one dives into the responses to the latest CVoter Mood of the Nation (MoTN) survey for India Today, both qualities are demonstrated.
A common thread of wisdom in democracies across the world is that voter behaviour is very strongly dependent on the economic performance of the government.
If voters feel that inflation is under control, that enough jobs are being created, that there are adequate opportunities for future economic prospects, and that their current economic situation is improving, they tend to vote for the regime in power.
On the other hand, if the opposite holds true, then the regime is usually voted out. That has been the case in most democracies for the last 50 years or so, or perhaps even more than a century.
But in India's case, there’s a stark contradiction: a majority of the respondents seem to be of the opinion that their family’s economic situation is not in very good shape.
And yet, a majority of the same people think that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has done a fairly good job and said they would probably vote for the same regime again if national elections were held today.
PEOPLE UNHAPPY WITH ECONOMY
In response to the MoTN question, who has benefited the most from the economic policies of the National Democratic Alliance, a majority of 53 per cent said that it is big business. Perhaps that could be because of perceptions.
But what is the reality? Here is a laundry list of what the Modi regime has done for the ordinary citizens ever since it came to power:
The Jan Dhan bank scheme, where more than 550 million new bank accounts have been opened with a facility for zero balance.
Provision of electricity connections at no cost to all the households across India, which had been deprived of electricity supply till 2014.
Medical insurance scheme for all people living in poverty, covering about 500 million Indians with insurance of up to Rs 5 lakh. For senior citizens above 70, the scheme is even more generous.
Free LPG connections are given to virtually every household, which means that an overwhelming majority of Indian households now use a relatively clean energy supply.
The construction of more than 130 million toilets across the country has not only provided dignity to women but also led to a reduction in crimes against women in many states.
The Rs 6,000 given to farmers every year. And of course, the Mudra loan scheme, which is exclusively meant for small entrepreneurs.
Data from other sources also makes it abundantly clear that the Modi regime has done more than enough for the poor and ordinary citizens of India.
The poverty ratio in India has actually declined to just about two per cent if you go by global institutions like the World Bank and International Monetary Fund.
And yet, the MoTN survey shows that 53 per cent of Indians think that big business has been the biggest beneficiary of the regime's policies.
Then there is a series of responses to other questions related to the economy.
The first two relate to inflation and unemployment. These two are rated as the biggest failures of the current regime.
Now, unemployment and inflation have been factors across India for more than five decades.
If one is a fan of Bollywood movies, one would recall that even in the early 70s, there were movies made by the late Manoj Kumar, like “Roti, Kapda aur Makaan”, which emphasised both unemployment and high prices.
So to that extent, one can say that singling out the Modi regime for inflation and unemployment would be a tad unfair.
THE CONTRADICTION
But the difference lies in something else, beyond jobs and inflation. More than 31 per cent of the respondents said that the economic situation of their family has actually deteriorated ever since Modi came to power in 2014, while about 35 per cent said it has improved, and about 30-odd per cent said that it has remained the same.
Despite so many welfare schemes and so many economic incentives, why is it that the average voter thinks that there is economic pain?
Then there is another very worrying set of data that has persisted since the times of the Covid-19 pandemic.
More than 60 per cent of the respondents in the MoTN survey said that expenses and family budgets have gotten very, very difficult to manage. That is a very large number.
So, these are some of the concerns that actually confront the ordinary Indian, their economic situations, and those of their families.
And they are not very optimistic about it. Almost a third felt that the situation might worsen in the next three to six months.
And yet, here is the contradiction. When asked about the performance of the prime minister as well as the NDA regime, they are given very, very high marks.
More importantly, when asked about whom they would likely vote for if elections were held today, 47 per cent of the respondents said the NDA. Meanwhile, only 39 per cent said that they would vote for the INDIA bloc.
WHY IS THIS THE CASE?
On the one hand, people are facing economic pain. A reduction in GST rates did not seem to have satisfied them; about half of the respondents said that it did not affect prices that much.
Still, the NDA will get a 47 per cent vote share, and will likely win more than 350 seats if Lok Sabha elections were held today. How does one explain this?
As far as the authors are concerned, perhaps the real reason lies in a proverb called it is better to go with the known devil than an unknown one.
No doubt, voters are unhappy. Perhaps this was one reason why the NDA tally declined in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, and that of the Bharatiya Janata Party fell significantly short of the majority mark of 272.
But despite the economic pain, voters seemed to feel — given the economic and geopolitical situation in India's neighbourhood and in the world — that Narendra Modi was the safest bet.
Is it better to play safe with Modi than try out a new regime? Or is India back to that era when Dr Prannoy Roy coined the term TINA (there is no alternative) for the India Today magazine?
Maybe there is more to the mystery. But for the moment, the reality is that for the NDA, it is political gain despite economic pain.
(Yashwant Deshmukh is the Founder and Editor-in-Chief of C-Voter Research Foundation and Sutanu Guru is Executive Director)