Can India really stop buying oil from Russia?
President Donald Trump claimed that India had vowed to stop buying oil from Russia. In recent years, Russia emerged as one of the key sources of crude for India. Here we analyse if it is feasible for India to end oil imports from Russia.
Indians mostly knew the desert countries in West Asia as the source of the oil their vehicles ran on. It was only recently, after 2022, to be more accurate, that Russia started to be associated with oil imports to India. However, India-Russia oil ties could be on a slippery slope, given the US sanctions and President Donald Trump's claims. We aren't getting into whether India should cut Russian oil imports. But can India really cut oil imports from Russia, which has become one of New Delhi's biggest crude sources? Stay on and we will give you a straight answer.
India and Russia have maintained a strategic partnership spanning more than 50 years, with ties dating back to the Soviet era. Though we have imported arms and defence hardware from Russia for decades, Moscow emerged as a major crude oil supplier for New Delhi primarily after sanctions on Moscow after the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Import volumes surged to massive levels, peaking at over 2 million barrels per day in mid-2025, and it came at heavily discounted rates from Moscow. As Trump on Sunday declared that the India-US trade deal had been finalised, he claimed New Delhi had vowed to cur Russian oil purchases. But experts are weighing in on whether India can truly diversify its crude imports at such a vast scale.
India imports around 88% of the crude oil it consumes. Russian crude became a major source due to discounted prices following Western sanctions on Moscow. But data from analytics firm Kpler shows India's Russian crude imports started dipping after the US imposed 50% tariffs, which included 25% for trading with Russia, on nearly all goods in August 2025. India's imports of Russian oil dipped to 1.215 million barrels per day (bpd) in January from over 2 million bpd in mid-2025.
With the India-US trade deal, a joint statement on which is coming in the next four-five days, according to Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal, Washington will be lowering the tariffs on Indian goods from 50% to 18%.
IS OIL PURCHASE FROM RUSSIA PART OF INDIA-US TRADE DEAL?
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt on Wednesday emphasised that the deal includes India increasing US oil purchases and exploring Venezuelan options to, framing it as a win for American workers and a blow to Russia's war funding in Ukraine.
"He [Modi] agreed to stop buying Russian oil, and to buy much more from the United States and, potentially, Venezuela," Trump claimed in his post on Sunday.
However, Indian officials haven't yet confirmed the details of any outright ban on Russian oil.
Responding to a media query about President Trump claiming India won't be buying Russian oil, MEA spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal on Thursday said, "In so far as India's energy security or energy sourcing is concerned, the government has stated publicly on several occasions, including by me here, that ensuring the energy security of 1.4 billion Indians is its supreme priority."
"Diversifying energy sourcing in keeping with objective market conditions and evolving international dynamics is at the core of our strategy. All of India's decisions are taken and will continue to be taken with this objective in mind," Jaiswal added.
On buying Venezuelan oil, Jaiswal said, "[Venezuela] has been a longstanding partner for us in the area of energy, both on the trade side and as also on the investment side. We were importing energy or crude oil from Venezuela till 2019-20, and thereafter we had to stop. Again we started buying oil from Venezuela in 2023-24, but had to stop, which were halted because of reimposition of sanctions."
"As you are aware that Indian PSUs they have established partnership with the National Oil Company of Venezuela — PDVSA, and they have (our PSUs) have maintained presence in the country since 2008. Consistent with our approach to the energy security, India remains open to exploring the commercial merits of any crude supply options, including from Venezuela," he added.
Meanwhile, Russia's Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said earlier this week that Moscow had no information about India cutting down on Russian crude oil. However, the Kremlin spokesperson on Wednesday noted, "We, along with all other international energy experts, are well aware that Russia is not the only supplier of oil and petroleum products to India. India has always purchased these products from other countries. Therefore, we see nothing new here."
HOW HAS INDIA DIVERSIFIED ITS CRUDE OIL IMPORTS?
Diversifying India's crude imports makes sense from a strategic point of view in theory, as it enhances energy security and reduces vulnerability to geopolitical disruptions.
Over the past two years, India has expanded its supplier base from about 27 to over 40 countries, incorporating crude supplies from the US, Brazil, Guyana, and West African nations. This policy makes India less reliant on just a handful of sources. As the Indian economy is growing, its energy needs are rising too, but both brent oil prices and sanctions on nations that provide crude oil are very uncertain in the current geopolitical climate.
While American shale oil is lighter in quality and suits Indian refineries if blended properly, the US lacks the export capacity to fully replace the massive volumes Russia supplied.
It must be noted that before the Russia-Ukraine war began in 2022, India's crude oil imports primarily came from Middle Eastern countries, especially Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE. When heavily discounted Russian crude became available after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, India seized the opportunity, ramped up imports, refined the oil in its refineries, and exported significant volumes of petroleum products to Europe.
Now, if India buys more US oil, it would help reduce the trade deficit, but the sub-situation is complicated, as the Trump administration wants India to buy Venezuelan oil, which is currently being controlled by the US. But the duration and extent of this US management is also uncertain.
WHY RUSSIAN CRUDE OIL SUITS INDIAN REFINERS BETTER?
Experts argue that a full pivot away from Russian oil is impractical and economically burdensome. Russian Urals crude, heavier and sulphur-rich, suits Indian refineries optimised for such grades, offering cost advantages that US or Venezuelan alternatives might not match without additional processing expenses.
Igor Yushkov, an analyst at Russia's National Energy Security Fund, commented on the current situation, saying, "US shale exports are largely light grades, while Russia supplies heavier, sulphur-rich Urals crude used by Indian refineries. India would need to blend US oil with other grades, which raises costs. A simple substitution is not possible."
Similarly, Wisdom & Boats, a tanker market consultant who analyses shipping and oil markets, talked about the logistical hurdles involved. "If India fully cuts off Russia they will have to replace [approximately] 1.7 million bpd (2025 avg) of crude that came from Russia... It seems India will likely buy Venezuelan crude (probably over 150,000 bpd) so this won't impact US exports."
The analyst pointed out that China might buy the displaced Russian oil, which would help Moscow keep selling. This, essentially, won't help the US' claims of Russian crude's sales to India funding the war in Ukraine. Moreover, China would likely use "shadow fleet" tankers — which are older, unregulated ships that dodge Western sanctions, which would make the global oil-shipping world more complicated and unpredictable.
Meanwhile, there have been reports that Russian exports to India shifted to little-known traders that had barely supplied the country in the past. Media reports suggest UAE-linked traders like Redwood Global Supply and Vistula Delta have maintained Russian supplies discreetly despite US pressure.
WILL INDIA'S CUTTING DOWN RUSSIA OIL IMPORTS HURT TIES WITH MOSCOW?
On the relational front, diversification is unlikely to significantly strain India-Russia ties. Moscow, through its statements, appears to recognise the complex pressure New Delhi faces from Washington — pressures that Kremlin itself has long encountered.
The India-Russia partnership spans diverse fields, including defence, fertilisers, and energy investments.
A gradual trimming in Russian crude imports is a signal to restoring ties with the US. However, abrupt cuts would risk oil price shock in India due to the factors discussed above.
Though possible, cutting entire Russian crude is seemingly not commercially simple, given the scale of Russian volumes, and its compatibility and cost factor. India's strategy has always been measured, especially with the US and Russia, and will likely involve cautious shifts. India will, of course, move ahead with the energy security of 1.4 billion Indians in mind.
Indians mostly knew the desert countries in West Asia as the source of the oil their vehicles ran on. It was only recently, after 2022, to be more accurate, that Russia started to be associated with oil imports to India. However, India-Russia oil ties could be on a slippery slope, given the US sanctions and President Donald Trump's claims. We aren't getting into whether India should cut Russian oil imports. But can India really cut oil imports from Russia, which has become one of New Delhi's biggest crude sources? Stay on and we will give you a straight answer.
India and Russia have maintained a strategic partnership spanning more than 50 years, with ties dating back to the Soviet era. Though we have imported arms and defence hardware from Russia for decades, Moscow emerged as a major crude oil supplier for New Delhi primarily after sanctions on Moscow after the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Import volumes surged to massive levels, peaking at over 2 million barrels per day in mid-2025, and it came at heavily discounted rates from Moscow. As Trump on Sunday declared that the India-US trade deal had been finalised, he claimed New Delhi had vowed to cur Russian oil purchases. But experts are weighing in on whether India can truly diversify its crude imports at such a vast scale.
India imports around 88% of the crude oil it consumes. Russian crude became a major source due to discounted prices following Western sanctions on Moscow. But data from analytics firm Kpler shows India's Russian crude imports started dipping after the US imposed 50% tariffs, which included 25% for trading with Russia, on nearly all goods in August 2025. India's imports of Russian oil dipped to 1.215 million barrels per day (bpd) in January from over 2 million bpd in mid-2025.
With the India-US trade deal, a joint statement on which is coming in the next four-five days, according to Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal, Washington will be lowering the tariffs on Indian goods from 50% to 18%.
IS OIL PURCHASE FROM RUSSIA PART OF INDIA-US TRADE DEAL?
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt on Wednesday emphasised that the deal includes India increasing US oil purchases and exploring Venezuelan options to, framing it as a win for American workers and a blow to Russia's war funding in Ukraine.
"He [Modi] agreed to stop buying Russian oil, and to buy much more from the United States and, potentially, Venezuela," Trump claimed in his post on Sunday.
However, Indian officials haven't yet confirmed the details of any outright ban on Russian oil.
Responding to a media query about President Trump claiming India won't be buying Russian oil, MEA spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal on Thursday said, "In so far as India's energy security or energy sourcing is concerned, the government has stated publicly on several occasions, including by me here, that ensuring the energy security of 1.4 billion Indians is its supreme priority."
"Diversifying energy sourcing in keeping with objective market conditions and evolving international dynamics is at the core of our strategy. All of India's decisions are taken and will continue to be taken with this objective in mind," Jaiswal added.
On buying Venezuelan oil, Jaiswal said, "[Venezuela] has been a longstanding partner for us in the area of energy, both on the trade side and as also on the investment side. We were importing energy or crude oil from Venezuela till 2019-20, and thereafter we had to stop. Again we started buying oil from Venezuela in 2023-24, but had to stop, which were halted because of reimposition of sanctions."
"As you are aware that Indian PSUs they have established partnership with the National Oil Company of Venezuela — PDVSA, and they have (our PSUs) have maintained presence in the country since 2008. Consistent with our approach to the energy security, India remains open to exploring the commercial merits of any crude supply options, including from Venezuela," he added.
Meanwhile, Russia's Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said earlier this week that Moscow had no information about India cutting down on Russian crude oil. However, the Kremlin spokesperson on Wednesday noted, "We, along with all other international energy experts, are well aware that Russia is not the only supplier of oil and petroleum products to India. India has always purchased these products from other countries. Therefore, we see nothing new here."
HOW HAS INDIA DIVERSIFIED ITS CRUDE OIL IMPORTS?
Diversifying India's crude imports makes sense from a strategic point of view in theory, as it enhances energy security and reduces vulnerability to geopolitical disruptions.
Over the past two years, India has expanded its supplier base from about 27 to over 40 countries, incorporating crude supplies from the US, Brazil, Guyana, and West African nations. This policy makes India less reliant on just a handful of sources. As the Indian economy is growing, its energy needs are rising too, but both brent oil prices and sanctions on nations that provide crude oil are very uncertain in the current geopolitical climate.
While American shale oil is lighter in quality and suits Indian refineries if blended properly, the US lacks the export capacity to fully replace the massive volumes Russia supplied.
It must be noted that before the Russia-Ukraine war began in 2022, India's crude oil imports primarily came from Middle Eastern countries, especially Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE. When heavily discounted Russian crude became available after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, India seized the opportunity, ramped up imports, refined the oil in its refineries, and exported significant volumes of petroleum products to Europe.
Now, if India buys more US oil, it would help reduce the trade deficit, but the sub-situation is complicated, as the Trump administration wants India to buy Venezuelan oil, which is currently being controlled by the US. But the duration and extent of this US management is also uncertain.
WHY RUSSIAN CRUDE OIL SUITS INDIAN REFINERS BETTER?
Experts argue that a full pivot away from Russian oil is impractical and economically burdensome. Russian Urals crude, heavier and sulphur-rich, suits Indian refineries optimised for such grades, offering cost advantages that US or Venezuelan alternatives might not match without additional processing expenses.
Igor Yushkov, an analyst at Russia's National Energy Security Fund, commented on the current situation, saying, "US shale exports are largely light grades, while Russia supplies heavier, sulphur-rich Urals crude used by Indian refineries. India would need to blend US oil with other grades, which raises costs. A simple substitution is not possible."
Similarly, Wisdom & Boats, a tanker market consultant who analyses shipping and oil markets, talked about the logistical hurdles involved. "If India fully cuts off Russia they will have to replace [approximately] 1.7 million bpd (2025 avg) of crude that came from Russia... It seems India will likely buy Venezuelan crude (probably over 150,000 bpd) so this won't impact US exports."
The analyst pointed out that China might buy the displaced Russian oil, which would help Moscow keep selling. This, essentially, won't help the US' claims of Russian crude's sales to India funding the war in Ukraine. Moreover, China would likely use "shadow fleet" tankers — which are older, unregulated ships that dodge Western sanctions, which would make the global oil-shipping world more complicated and unpredictable.
Meanwhile, there have been reports that Russian exports to India shifted to little-known traders that had barely supplied the country in the past. Media reports suggest UAE-linked traders like Redwood Global Supply and Vistula Delta have maintained Russian supplies discreetly despite US pressure.
WILL INDIA'S CUTTING DOWN RUSSIA OIL IMPORTS HURT TIES WITH MOSCOW?
On the relational front, diversification is unlikely to significantly strain India-Russia ties. Moscow, through its statements, appears to recognise the complex pressure New Delhi faces from Washington — pressures that Kremlin itself has long encountered.
The India-Russia partnership spans diverse fields, including defence, fertilisers, and energy investments.
A gradual trimming in Russian crude imports is a signal to restoring ties with the US. However, abrupt cuts would risk oil price shock in India due to the factors discussed above.
Though possible, cutting entire Russian crude is seemingly not commercially simple, given the scale of Russian volumes, and its compatibility and cost factor. India's strategy has always been measured, especially with the US and Russia, and will likely involve cautious shifts. India will, of course, move ahead with the energy security of 1.4 billion Indians in mind.