Chapra Assembly Election 2024

Established in 1962, the Chapra constituency has voted in 15 elections. The Communist Party of India (Marxist) won eight times, enjoying a streak of seven consecutive victories from 1977 to 2006. Bangla Congress won twice when it existed, while Sanjukta Biplabi Parishad and Congress each won once. Since 2011, the Trinamool Congress has claimed the seat three times, with Rukbanur Rahman as its candidate. Rahman defeated CPI(M)’s Shamsul Islam Mollah, twice winner in 2001 and 2006, by 2,633 votes in 2011 and 13,463 votes in 2016. In 2021, Rahman beat Independent candidate Jaber Sekh by 12,118 votes, with the BJP coming a close third and CPI(M) dropping to fourth place. The BJP, despite demographic hurdles, has shown growth, with vote shares rising from 4.31 per cent in 2011 to 7.95 per cent in 2016, and 27.29 per cent in 2021.

Lok Sabha results mirror these trends. Trinamool Congress has led in the last four parliamentary polls, with the BJP overtaking CPI(M) as the main challenger since 2019. Trinamool led CPI(M) by 12,248 votes in 2009 and 1,482 votes in 2014. Its lead jumped to 49,372 in 2019 as CPI(M) slipped to third behind the BJP. The 2024 lead increased further to 56,875 votes. Trinamool’s massive leads in recent polls can be attributed to the steep decline of CPI(M), whose vote share dipped to 10.50 per cent in 2019 and 12.37 per cent in 2024, while the BJP polled 28.60 per cent and 27.95 per cent.

Chapra had 258,821 registered voters in 2024, up from 248,014 in 2021 and 236,558 in 2019. The BJP faces demographic limitations with 49 per cent Muslim voters, while the Scheduled Castes stand at 13.40 per cent. As per the 2011 census, Muslims made up 59.72 per cent of Chapra’s population, and Hindus accounted for 37.15 per cent. Its proximity to the Bangladesh border may explain the high concentration of Muslims. Voter turnout remains robust, peaking at 87.95 per cent in 2011 and dropping to 78.35 per cent in 2024. The turnout in between was 85.25 per cent in 2016, 82.22 per cent in 2019 and 86.11 per cent in 2021.

Chapra stands on the alluvial plains of the Ganga and its tributaries, with mostly flat terrain and fertile soils suited for agriculture. Paddy, wheat, and jute are the major crops, and small irrigation canals crisscross the block. The Jalangi River flows through the area, providing water for farming and daily life. Infrastructure in Chapra includes basic amenities like drinking water, electricity, rural roads, and mobile connectivity. Local markets and health centres serve the townspeople and villagers.

The town is 16 km north of Krishnanagar, the district headquarters, and roughly 110 km north of Kolkata, the state capital. Nearby towns include Palashipara, located 39 km from Chapra, Nakashipara about 25 km away, and Krishnanagar, the district headquarters, just 16 km to the south. Murshidabad town is 78 km distant, while Barasat in North 24 Parganas lies about 120 km away. The international border with Bangladesh is approximately 105 km by road from Chapra. 

Since 2009, Trinamool Congress has won and led in all seven elections here, putting it far ahead of its challengers. The BJP has likely reached its ceiling due to its limited appeal among Muslim voters, unless it can change perceptions and CPI(M) manages to attract more of the majority Muslim electorate. Without major changes in voting patterns or a surprise split in the Muslim votes, it will take a miracle to unseat the Trinamool Congress from the Chapra constituency.

(Ajay Jha)